UGI
UGI CorpNYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated GasSnapshot 2026-06-08
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile, and management's track record is volatile. The sector backdrop is a headwind, but UGI trades above typical for its peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 40% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. The read is provisional.
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Utilities - Regulated Gas
- Market cap
- $7.47B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1996-05-14
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-05
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $34.70. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 41% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
P/E vs. its own history
58 monthly points availableHow this compares
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
UGI UGI Corp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
TLN Talen Energy | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
WTRG Essential Utilities | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | fair | moderate |
OGE OGE Energy | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 18 of 100 | full | low |
CWEN Clearway Energy, Inc. (Class C) | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 8 of 100 | — | moderate |
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a plain-language read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated strong grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=906).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.73x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated fragile grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=832).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Utilities names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-08.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Why this setup
EPS estimate $-0.04 → $-0.21 (-425.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 41.8% above current price.
2 positive, 4 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-08.
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Show composite score
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Focus on capital allocation and debt management
Capital allocationPrioritize effective capital allocation and manage debt levels to ensure financial stability.
Mixed40%CEO/CFO:“UGI announced a $500 million senior notes issuance to manage debt.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-26First seen 2025-06-30 - #2
Enhance operational cash flow
CostImprove operational cash flow to support business activities and investments.
On track72%CEO/CFO:“CFO: 'We are focused on enhancing operational cash flow to support our investments.'”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-07First seen 2025-03-31 - #3
Maintain profitability and EPS growth
GrowthFocus on sustaining profitability and growing earnings per share (EPS) over time.
On track72%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'We aim to maintain profitability and drive EPS growth.'”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-07First seen 2025-06-30
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$89.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$195.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,963.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- label change · signal_labelsmall change
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'favorable'.
As of June 8, 2026, the signal label changed, indicating a shift to a more favorable outlook. Risk remained moderate, while earnings quality was described as fragile. Management was noted as volatile, and the sector backdrop was characterized as a headwind. The valuation was labeled as cheap, with a noted value-trap risk due to weak recent financials.
as of 2026-06-08
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
- Either wayHigh confidenceMonthsactive 10d
Watch for Q3 earnings results on August 5, 2026
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if UGI's cash flow and EPS growth trends continue. This is key for investors.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:UGI reports diluted EPS growth over $2.33. This shows strong earnings.
Confirms the other:UGI reports diluted EPS below $2.19. This shows a drop in profits.
Sector contextSource dated next_earnings - UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 3d
Watch for Q3 earnings results on August 5, 2026
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if UGI maintains profitability and cash flow growth. This is key for investor confidence.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Earnings per share (EPS) growth is reported at 5% or more year over year.
Disproves:EPS growth is reported below 0% year over year.
Sector contextSource dated next_earnings_date - UpsideMedium confidenceQuartersactive 3d
Watch for cash flow improvements in upcoming reports
Why it matters: Enhancing cash flow is crucial for UGI's financial health. Strong cash flow supports growth and dividends.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Operational cash flow goes up by 10% or more from last quarter.
Disproves:Operational cash flow goes down or stays the same from last quarter.
Management prioritiesSource dated cash_flow_priority
This sector is also watching
- Watch for utilities to grow revenue faster than 7% year over year.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
- If sector bellwethers like ATO, NI, and SWX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Utilities sector momentum should keep lifting UGI and other Utilities names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed surprises with a rate hike from the current 3.62% (markets have been positioned for cuts), it would put pressure on UGI and other Utilities names, since the sector tends to underperform when rates climb.
- If sector bellwethers like ATO, NI, and SWX start missing or guiding lower, the Utilities tailwind helping UGI and other Utilities names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.7%), that would delay Fed rate cuts, which is a drag on UGI and other Utilities names.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits UGI and other Utilities names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2614d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Senior Notes Issued by AmeriGas Partners and Finance Corp. On May 20, 2026, AmeriGas Partners, L.P. (“AmeriGas Partners”) and AmeriGas Finance Corp. (“Finance Corp.” and, together with AmeriGas Partners, the “Issuers”), indirect, wholly owned subsidiaries of UGI Corporation (the “Company”), issued $500.0 million aggregate principal amount of their 6.875% senior unsecured notes due 2031 (the “2031 Notes” and the offering of the 2031 Notes, the “Offer…
capital allocationpositivescore 48 - 2026-05-2218d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. The information required by this item is included in
mna activitypositivescore 44 - 2026-05-2812d agoItem 5.02
General Counsel and Chief Legal Officer — Kathleen Shea Ballay: Ms. Shea Ballay intends to resign from her roles.
executive changenegativescore 40 - 2026-05-2614d agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement. The information required by
capital allocationnegativescore 38 - 2026-05-2614d agoItem 1.02
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. As disclosed in the Company’s Current Report on Form 8-K, filed on May 18, 2026, holders of $468,471,000 in aggregate principal amount validly tendered (and did not validly withdraw) their 2027 Notes as of the expiration of the Tender Offer (as defined therein). On May 20, 2026, the Issuers accepted for purchase (and purchased) the 2027 Notes validly tendered as of the expiration for a total consideration of $1,011.18 for each $1,000 principal a…
mna activitynegativescore 38
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.