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Valero EnergyNYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$258.67+1.20%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well-supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been neutral, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with VLO trading above typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 3% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
- Market cap
- $75.90B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1997-05-13
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-30
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $258.67. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$250.02consensus
Range $209.88 – $292.96
vs price: +3% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$508.50consensus
Range $422.43 – $554.47
vs price: -49% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peershigh confidence
At $259 VLO trades at 19× p/e, in line with its 18× p/e peer median. Our $250 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $203–$289. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
18.5x
peer 17.9x · own history 16.4x
Premium
1.0x peer
1.1x its own history
Growth the price needs
3%
our forecast -8%
Our fair value
$250.02
range $209.88 – $297.03
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inStretched
The market is pricing in roughly 3% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about -8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated strong grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
91st pctl · Energy
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.49x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated fragile grew net income 38% of the time over the next year (vs 44% for the rest of the cohort, n=602).
28th pctl · Energy
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
- long-term interest rates: This stock tends to rise when long-term rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +6.3% / 30d, n=16for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $9.34 → $9.93 (+6.3% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 16 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 9.1% above current price.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$150.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$309.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,418.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'full'.
Valuation changed. It rose to "full" from "fair." Risk remained moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind. Earnings quality is fragile. Recent financial performance is strong.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceWeeksactive 18d
Watch for Q2 2026 earnings results
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Valero can keep strong financial performance after a good Q1 2026.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Q2 2026 earnings report shows net income above $1.3 billion.
Confirms the other:Q2 2026 earnings report shows net income below $1 billion.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for VLO yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for changes in oil prices following CPI and PPI reports
- Watch for energy revenue growth to pick up above 8% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like MPC, PSX, and DINO keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Energy sector momentum should keep lifting VLO and other Energy names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If VLO raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-01-29), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit VLO and other Energy names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
Downside triggers
- If VLO cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-01-29), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like MPC, PSX, and DINO start missing or guiding lower, the Energy tailwind helping VLO and other Energy names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-301mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Valero Energy Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial and operating results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished with this report as Exhibit 99.01 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this report is being furnished, not filed, pursuant to
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.