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TGT
Target CorporationNYSEConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$135.23+1.95%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, although TGT is performing above typical compared with sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This analysis is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer Staples
- Industry
- Discount Stores
- Market cap
- $59.47B
- Employees
- 415,000
- IPO date
- 1967-10-18
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-19
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $135.23. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$143.92consensus
Range $138.54 – $187.43
vs price: -6% below
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$195.07consensus
Range $171.61 – $366.72
vs price: -31% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $135 TGT trades at 17× p/e, below its 18× p/e peer median. Our $144 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $102–$155. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
16.9x
peer 17.6x · own history 16.0x
Premium
1.0x peer
1.1x its own history
Growth the price needs
-6%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$143.92
range $138.54 – $188.24
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced in
The price sits about 6% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
69th pctl · Consumer Staples
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 2.03x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
72nd pctl · Consumer Staples
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral16 PT revisions / 30d, avg 9.7% above currentfor period ending 2026-07-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $2.24 → $2.24 (+0.1% / 30d). 12 raised, 16 cut, 31 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 10 maintained. 29% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
16 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 9.7% above current price.
Material events
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer staples is in (~3.0 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$124.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$299.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,029.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 18d
Watch for Q2 sales decline not exceeding low-single digits
Why it matters: If sales drop is low, it matches what management expects. This may help keep the stock stable.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Sales decline of 1% or less year over year in Q2.
Disproves:Sales decline exceeds 3% year over year in Q2.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-111d agoNewsweek
Advances: Expect low-single digit decline in sales
Competitive deals may stabilize sales amid consumer struggles.
ReinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Consumer Price Index data on June 10
- Watch for Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report on June 17
- Watch for FOMC decision on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for TGT and other Consumer Staples names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If TGT beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a solid beat of +17% on the 2026-04-30 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit TGT and other Consumer Staples names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
Downside triggers
- If TGT reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-20), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- Consumer Staples has been in a strong run; if sector bellwethers like WMT, COST, and DG start showing cracks (missed prints, soft guidance), TGT and other Consumer Staples names could lose the sector tailwind.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-121d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers . On June 10, 2026, Target Corporation (the “Company”) held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders (the “Annual Meeting”). at which the Company’s shareholders approved the Amended and Restated Target Corporation 2020 Long-Term Incentive Plan (the “2026 Restatement”). The full text of the 2026 Restatement is attached hereto as Exhibit 10.27 and is i…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-4.2 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.