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NiSourceNYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated GasSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$47.21+1.27%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, while management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is mixed, and risk is low, though the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and sector trends, as these could significantly impact NI's outlook. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Utilities - Regulated Gas
- Market cap
- $22.21B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2001-05-09
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-05
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $47.21. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$42.12consensus
Range $41.91 – $48.96
vs price: +12% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$52.69consensus
Range $51.28 – $53.08
vs price: -10% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peersmedium confidence
At $47 NI trades at 24× p/e, in line with its 20× p/e peer median. Our $42 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $49–$52. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
23.7x
peer 20.4x · own history 21.2x
Premium
1.2x peer
1.1x its own history
Growth the price needs
12%
our forecast 15%
Our fair value
$42.12
range $41.91 – $49.86
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 12% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 15%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated strong grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=906).
95th pctl · Utilities
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 2.20x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1075).
56th pctl · Utilities
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
- real (inflation-adjusted) rates: This stock behaves like a long-duration asset — tends to fall when real rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearish8 analysts, 80% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.23 → $0.23 (-1.1% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 8 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 80% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: utilities is in (~3.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$77.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$180.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $914.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
lowas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceMonthsactive 7d
Watch for next earnings report on August 5, 2026
Why it matters: Earnings reports provide key insights into financial performance. They can impact stock price.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue and EPS growth compared to last year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue and EPS decline compared to last year.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NI yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for utilities to grow revenue faster than 7% year over year.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for NI and other Utilities names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like ATO, UGI, and SWX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Utilities sector momentum should keep lifting NI and other Utilities names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
Downside triggers
- If NI reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-06), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like ATO, UGI, and SWX start missing or guiding lower, the Utilities tailwind helping NI and other Utilities names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would delay Fed rate cuts, which is a drag on NI and other Utilities names.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-1826d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. Senior Notes Due 2031 and 2036 On May 11, 2026, NiSource Inc. (the “Company”) and BNP Paribas Securities Corp., BofA Securities, Inc., MUFG Securities Americas Inc. and U.S. Bancorp Investments, Inc., as Lead Underwriters, entered into a Terms Agreement (the “Terms Agreement”) with respect to the offering and sale of $500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of the Company’s 4.750% Notes due 2031 (the “2031 Notes”) and $750,000,000 aggregate principal amount of the Company’s 5.300…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-3.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.