Reading MO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MO free→Reading MO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MO free→NYSEConsumer StaplesTobaccoSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is low, but the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance compared with sector peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 21% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $71.94. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $72 MO trades at 13× p/e, below its 18× p/e peer median. Our $91 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $63–$77. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 21% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.10x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated fragile grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.47 → $1.49 (+1.5% / 30d). 8 raised, 0 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 31% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -11.6% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$85.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$188.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,639.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This would signal that Altria is struggling to meet its growth targets. It could raise concerns about its earnings stability.
Confirms:Q2 adjusted diluted EPS growth is reported below 2.5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 adjusted diluted EPS growth meets or exceeds 2.5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
CEO — Salvatore Mancuso: Salvatore Mancuso was promoted to CEO and received significant compensation packages.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$63.00 – $77.00 (median $72.50) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-05-15
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Staples (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MO Altria | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | fair | low |
WMT Walmart | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 30 of 100 | expensive | low |
COST Costco | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 50 of 100 | expensive | low |
KO Coca-Cola Company (The) | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | expensive | low |
PG Procter & Gamble | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | full | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on delivering EPS growth through strategic initiatives and operational efficiency.
Continue the share repurchase program to return value to shareholders.
Invest in contract manufacturing capabilities to support strategic growth initiatives.
Why it matters: The sector is in a mature phase. Any revenue growth could signal a positive shift.
Confirms:Revenue growth reported above 5% year over year in upcoming quarters.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: Updates on the share buyback plan show management's trust in cash flow and spending.
Confirms:Management increases the share buyback plan or speeds up buybacks.
Disproves:Management cuts the share buyback plan or stops buybacks.
Why it matters: Updates on the new CEO's performance will show if the leadership change helps growth.
Confirms one read:Good performance metrics or new plans announced by the new CEO.
Confirms the other:Negative performance metrics or lack of strategic direction from the new CEO.
Why it matters: A new CEO can change company direction. This could affect growth plans.
Confirms one read:New CEO announces a strategic plan that focuses on growth.
Confirms the other:New CEO maintains the status quo with no new initiatives.
Why it matters: A bigger drop would show worse trends in smokeable products. This would hurt overall revenue.
Confirms:Cigarette shipment volume declines more than 4% year over year.
Disproves:Cigarette shipment volume drops less than 4% year over year or stays steady.
104 The cover page from this Current Report on Form 8-K, formatted in Inline XBRL (included as Exhibit 101) 2 SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. ALTRIA GROUP, INC. By: /s/ MARY C. BIGELOW Name: Mary C. Bigelow Title: Vice President, Corporate Secretary and Associate General Counsel DATE: April 30, 2026 3
104 The cover page from this Current Report on Form 8-K, formatted in Inline XBRL (included as Exhibit 101) 2 SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. ALTRIA GROUP, INC. By: /s/ MARY C. BIGELOW Name: Mary C. Bigelow Title: Vice President, Corporate Secretary and Associate General Counsel DATE: January 29, 2026 3
Director — Salvatore Mancuso: Altria's Board elected Salvatore Mancuso as a new Director and future CEO.
CEO — William F. Gifford, Jr.: William F. Gifford, Jr. is retiring as CEO and director with successors already named.