Reading KEYS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KEYS free→
KEYS
Keysight TechnologiesNYSEInformation TechnologyScientific & Technical InstrumentsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$350.67+3.13%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality and management are neutral. The company has a capital-unfriendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Compared with sector peers, KEYS is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 50% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. Rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. If KEYS reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising, that could hurt credibility.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Scientific & Technical Instruments
- Market cap
- $56.64B
- Employees
- 40,000
- IPO date
- 2014-12-22
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-18
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $350.67. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$233.23consensus
Range $213.78 – $244.69
vs price: +50% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$453.23consensus
Range $279.51 – $469.93
vs price: -23% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratinglow confidence
At $351 KEYS trades at 40× p/e — 1.5× the 28× p/e peer median, and above its own 27× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $233 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $257–$425. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
40.4x
peer 27.7x · own history 26.9x
Premium
1.5x peer
1.5x its own history
Growth the price needs
50%
our forecast 13%
Our fair value
$233.23
range $213.62 – $244.69
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 50% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
High fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
89th pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.41x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
37th pctl · Information Technology
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to long-term interest rates, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +16.1% / 30d, n=13for period ending 2026-07-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $2.14 → $2.48 (+16.1% / 30d). 13 raised, 0 cut, 13 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 12 maintained. 77% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
9 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 11.1% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Guidance credibility
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$166.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$323.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,400.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 18d
Watch for Q2 2026 revenue guidance confirmation
Why it matters: Confirmation of revenue guidance shows that Keysight is on track for growth. It helps validate management's priorities.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Management confirms revenue guidance for Q2 2026 is met or exceeded.
Disproves:Revenue guidance for Q2 2026 is lower than expected. It missed by a lot.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for KEYS yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in Information Technology to fall below the median.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for KEYS and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like COHR, TDY, and MKSI keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting KEYS and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
Downside triggers
- If KEYS reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-19), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like COHR, TDY, and MKSI start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping KEYS and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits KEYS and other Tech names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-1925d agoItem 2.02
of Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. On May 19, 2026 , Keysight Technologies, Inc. (the “Company”) issued its press release announcing financial results for the second fiscal quarter ended April 30, 2026. A copy of this press release is attached hereto as…
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-5.2 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.