Reading JCI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track JCI free→
JCI
Johnson ControlsNYSEIndustrialsBuilding Products & EquipmentSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$144.96+0.66%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile, and management is volatile. The company is capital-unfriendly, and risk is low. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and it trades at a typical level compared to peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 80% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. If JCI cuts guidance on the next call, that could be negative.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Building Products & Equipment
- Market cap
- $90.14B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1996-05-10
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-28
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $144.96. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$80.50consensus
Range $57.25 – $91.99
vs price: +80% above
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$154.80consensus
Range $102.33 – $190.82
vs price: -6% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratinglow confidence
At $145 JCI trades at 33× p/e — 1.8× the 18× p/e peer median, and above its own 24× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $81 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $140–$180. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
33.0x
peer 17.9x · own history 24.4x
Premium
1.8x peer
1.4x its own history
Growth the price needs
80%
our forecast -3%
Our fair value
$80.50
range $62.25 – $91.99
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 80% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
88th pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 0.86x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
14th pctl · Industrials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish18 analysts, 52% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.29 → $1.30 (+0.1% / 30d). 13 raised, 3 cut, 18 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 52% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 22.1% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Guidance credibility
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$131.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$264.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,272.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
lowas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 18d
Watch for Q3 organic sales growth at ~6% or better
Why it matters: Achieving this growth confirms strong demand and supports the raised full-year guidance.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q3 organic sales growth reported at 6% or higher compared to the previous year.
Disproves:Q3 organic sales growth was below 6%.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for JCI yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like TT, CARR, and LII keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting JCI and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If JCI raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-07), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If JCI cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-07), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like TT, CARR, and LII start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping JCI and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits JCI and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0310d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Elections of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of New Director On June 3, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Johnson Controls International plc (the "Company") increased the size of the Board to 12 directors in accordance with its Memorandum and Articles of Association and appointed Irene Esteves to serve as a member of the Company’s Board with a term expiring at the con…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-1.0 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.