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HCA
HCA HealthcareNYSEHealth CareMedical Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$387.18+2.29%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is mixed, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may present challenges. Peer multiples imply a price about 16% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. If HCA cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Medical Care Facilities
- Market cap
- $83.97B
- Employees
- 179
- IPO date
- 1994-03-31
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $387.18. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$435.38consensus
Range $375.94 – $454.64
vs price: -11% below
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$563.81consensus
Range $546.95 – $646.54
vs price: -31% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $387 HCA trades at 13× p/e, below its 14× p/e peer median. Our $435 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $413–$635. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
13.4x
peer 14.5x · own history 14.9x
Premium
0.9x peer
0.9x its own history
Growth the price needs
-11%
our forecast 13%
Our fair value
$435.38
range $375.94 – $454.64
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 11% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
87th pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.91x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
63rd pctl · Health Care
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatile7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral20 analysts, 60% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $7.39 → $7.36 (-0.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 20 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 60% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 13.0% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: health care is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.5 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- strong
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$113.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$278.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,362.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceMonthsactive 14d
Watch for updates on 2026 revenue guidance
Why it matters: Keeping guidance shows confidence in growth. Changes may mean challenges ahead.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Management keeps 2026 revenue guidance the same.
Confirms the other:Management cuts revenue guidance for 2026.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HCA yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Health Care revenue growth dropping below 8% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like THC, DVA, and EHC keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting HCA and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If HCA raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-24), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for HCA and other Healthcare names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If HCA cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-24), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like THC, DVA, and EHC start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping HCA and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-301mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Issuance of $3,000,000,000 aggregate principal amount of senior notes Overview On April 30, 2026, HCA Inc. (the “Issuer”), a direct, wholly owned subsidiary of HCA Healthcare, Inc. (the “Parent Guarantor”), completed the public offering of (i) $1,000,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 4.700% Senior Notes due 2031 (the “2031 Notes”), (ii) $750,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 5.000% Senior Notes due 2033 (the “2033 Notes”) and (iii) $…
Capital allocationpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-1.4 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.