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ATO
Atmos EnergyNYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated GasSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$169.96+1.03%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well-supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been volatile, and the capital stance is capital unfriendly, which may raise concerns. The sector backdrop is a headwind, although ATO trades above typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and sector trends, which could impact ATO's performance. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Utilities - Regulated Gas
- Market cap
- $27.98B
- Employees
- 5,487
- IPO date
- 1994-02-14
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-05
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $169.96. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$171.00consensus
Range $167.34 – $176.22
vs price: -1% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$213.34consensus
Range $208.81 – $240.28
vs price: -20% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peersmedium confidence
At $170 ATO trades at 21× p/e, in line with its 20× p/e peer median. Our $171 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $183–$195. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
20.9x
peer 20.4x · own history 20.7x
Premium
1.0x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-1%
our forecast -2%
Our fair value
$171.00
range $167.34 – $178.47
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 1% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated strong grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=906).
97th pctl · Utilities
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.39x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated fragile grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=832).
14th pctl · Utilities
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
- real (inflation-adjusted) rates: This stock behaves like a long-duration asset — tends to fall when real rates rise.
- long-term interest rates: This stock tends to fall when long-term rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral7 analysts, 14% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.37 → $1.37 (-0.3% / 30d). 2 raised, 2 cut, 7 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 14% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 5.5% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: utilities is in maturing, with stable trajectory (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- strong
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$77.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$162.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,307.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
lowas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · signal_labelmoderate change
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
As of June 12, 2026, the signal label changed to "mixed," indicating a shift in sentiment. The risk dimension fell, suggesting a decrease in perceived risk. The earnings quality remains fragile, and management is described as volatile, indicating instability in those areas. The sector backdrop is noted as a headwind, which may affect overall performance.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 14d
Watch for Q2 earnings per share guidance confirmation
Why it matters: Confirming the EPS guidance range of $8.15 - $8.35 shows strong earnings stability.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Management confirms EPS guidance remains within the range of $8.15 - $8.35.
Disproves:Management lowers EPS guidance to less than $8.15.
Earnings call
as of 2026-06-12
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ATO yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for utilities to grow revenue faster than 7% year over year.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for ATO and other Utilities names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like NI, UGI, and SWX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Utilities sector momentum should keep lifting ATO and other Utilities names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
Downside triggers
- If ATO reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-06), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like NI, UGI, and SWX start missing or guiding lower, the Utilities tailwind helping ATO and other Utilities names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would delay Fed rate cuts, which is a drag on ATO and other Utilities names.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-061mo agoItem 2.02
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Earnings preannouncement—
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-4.8 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.