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ZTS
ZoetisNYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$79.57-2.25%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits may not be well-supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been neutral, and the company is capital-friendly in its approach. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind, which could impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
- Market cap
- $34.13B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2012-08-13
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $79.57. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$78.84consensus
Range $72.68 – $82.25
vs price: +1% above
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$114.84consensus
Range $107.60 – $123.29
vs price: -31% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peersmedium confidence
At $80 ZTS trades at 13× p/e, in line with its 13× p/e peer median. Our $79 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $95–$160. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
12.8x
peer 12.8x · own history 31.6x
Premium
1.0x peer
0.4x its own history
Growth the price needs
1%
our forecast 11%
Our fair value
$78.84
range $71.46 – $81.86
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 1% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
84th pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.04x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated fragile grew net income 40% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
28th pctl · Health Care
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bearish13 analysts, 55% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.90 → $1.86 (-2.0% / 30d). 2 raised, 9 cut, 13 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 2 maintained. 55% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 34.9% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: health care is in (~0.5 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$117.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$287.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,535.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 18d
Watch for EPS guidance update for 2026
Why it matters: EPS guidance will indicate how profit expectations are changing. This affects how investors view the company's future.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Management expects higher EPS for 2026. This is above current forecasts.
Disproves:Management lowers EPS guidance for 2026 or keeps it unchanged.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-1219h agoYahoo! Finance
Difficult Q1 update raises concerns about future guidance.
ChallengesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Health Care revenue growth dropping below 8% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like HLN, TEVA, and UTHR keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting ZTS and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If ZTS raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for ZTS and other Healthcare names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If ZTS cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like HLN, TEVA, and UTHR start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping ZTS and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-071mo agoItem 2.02
and the attached Exhibit 99.1 is being furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the Exchange Act), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-2.5 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.