Reading WRB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WRB free→Reading WRB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WRB free→NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes, and the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, though WRB is trading above typical compared with sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 28% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. The assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $68.27. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $68 the market pays 14× p/e — above the 11× p/e peer median but in line with its own 19× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $53 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts: $58–$71. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 28% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.87x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.09 → $1.10 (+0.4% / 30d). 5 raised, 6 cut, 15 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 1 downgrade / 30d, 0 maintained. 10% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -11.8% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$90.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$243.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,763.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal broader challenges for W. R. Berkley.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth falls below its median of 12%.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median of 12%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for WRB yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 9, 2026, W. R. Berkley Corporation (the “Company”) entered into the First Amendment (the “Amendment”) to that certain Credit Agreement, dated April 1, 2022 (as amended, the “Credit Agreement”), by and among the Company, as borrower, each lender from time to time party to the Credit Agreement, each of M&T Bank, JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Morgan Stanley Senior Funding, Inc., as Syndication Agents, and Bank of America, N.A., as Administrativ…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$58.00 – $71.00 (median $68.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-06-12
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Property & Casualty Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
WRB W. R. Berkley Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | full | moderate |
CB Chubb Limited | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | full | moderate |
PGR Progressive Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TRV Travelers Companies (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | low |
ALL Allstate | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -11.7% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Maintain a focus on exceeding a 15% after-tax return on equity for the foreseeable future.
Focus on maintaining excellent margins while exploring select opportunities for growth.
Continue to focus on creating exceptional value for shareholders through strategic initiatives.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company is improving its return on equity. This is key for growth.
Confirms:The Q2 earnings report shows after-tax return on equity is over 15%.
Disproves:The Q2 earnings report shows after-tax return on equity is under 14.3%.
Why it matters: Slower growth in net investment income can affect profits and returns.
Confirms:Net investment income growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Net investment income growth remains above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Margins are critical for growth. Strong margins suggest good management of costs and pricing.
Confirms:The Q2 earnings report shows margins are better than in previous quarters.
Disproves:Q2 earnings report shows margins declining or staying flat.
Why it matters: More share repurchases may show strong cash flow and value for shareholders.
Confirms:Total share repurchases in Q2 exceed $300 million.
Disproves:Share repurchases fall below $300 million in Q2.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation Under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Reference is made to the press release of W. R. Berkley Corporation (the “Company”) relating to the announcement of the Company’s results of operations for the first quarter of 2026. The press release was issued on April 21, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached to this Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained herein shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities…