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Warner Bros. DiscoveryNASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· 1–3 mo
$26.98+0.45%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
WBD's recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed, and it trades below typical for sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 43% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers like NFLX and DIS. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Entertainment
- Market cap
- $67.15B
- Employees
- 35,500
- IPO date
- 2008-11-07
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-06
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $26.98. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$18.83consensus
Range $17.17 – $52.92
vs price: +43% above
Method agreement — · 3 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$19.62consensus
Range $18.15 – $55.40
vs price: +38% above
Method agreement — · 3 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfull
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratinglow confidence
At $27 WBD trades at 2× p/s — 1.4× the 1× p/s peer median, and above its own 1× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $19 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $31–$31. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
1.8x
peer 1.3x · own history 1.1x
Premium
1.4x peer
1.6x its own history
Growth the price needs
42%
our forecast -2%
Our fair value
$19.01
range $17.15 – $50.33
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 42% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated weak grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=701).
21st pctl · Communication Services
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -2.05x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
NeutralEPS revised +5.6% / 30d, n=12for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.07 → $-0.07 (+5.6% / 30d). 3 raised, 5 cut, 12 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 10% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
1 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: communication services is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$48.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$256.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,131.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · confidence_labelsmall change
Confidence changed from 'high' to 'medium'.
Confidence changed to medium. Risk is moderate. Earnings quality is loss-making. Management is volatile and capital-unfriendly. The sector backdrop is a headwind. Recent financial performance is weak.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 7d
Watch for Q2 2026 advertising revenue decline greater than 8%
Why it matters: A bigger drop would show problems in ad sales. This would hurt overall revenue.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 2026 advertising revenue down year over year worse than 8%.
Disproves:Advertising revenue stays steady or grows each year.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for WBD yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth cooling below 10% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for WBD and other Communication Services names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like NFLX, DIS, and TKO keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Communication Services sector momentum should keep lifting WBD and other Communication Services names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If WBD raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If WBD cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like NFLX, DIS, and TKO start missing or guiding lower, the Communication Services tailwind helping WBD and other Communication Services names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-049d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. First Lien Credit Agreement On June 4, 2026, Discovery Global Holdings, Inc. (“DGH”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (the “Company”), entered into that certain First Lien Credit Agreement (the “First Lien Credit Agreement”) among the Company, as holdco, DGH, as parent borrower, the designated subsidiary borrowers from time to time party thereto, the lenders from time to time party thereto, JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (“JPM”)…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-4.4 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.