Reading WAFD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WAFD free→Reading WAFD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WAFD free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
WAFD shows a stable management track record, but recent financial performance is neutral and earnings quality is fragile, indicating potential weaknesses. The sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance compared to peers, where it is currently typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening, as recent financials or earnings quality are showing signs of decline. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly influence future performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $37.07. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $37 WAFD trades at 12× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $38 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 2% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 100%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.01x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.76 → $0.81 (+7.2% / 30d). 4 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$65.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$205.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,290.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if net income is increasing as planned. This is key for growth.
Confirms:Net income increases year over year by more than 10%.
Disproves:Net income decreases year over year or grows less than 5%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for WAFD yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events On May 12, 2026 the Board of Directors of WaFd, Inc. (the "Company" or "WaFd") declared a cash dividend of $12.1875 per share, on its 4.875% Fixed Rate Series A Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock. This dividend equals $0.30468750 per depositary share, each representing 1/40th interest in a share of Series A Preferred Stock, which is traded on the NASDAQ under the symbol "WAFDP." The Series A Preferred Stock dividend is payable on July 15, 2026, to shareholders of record as…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
WAFD WaFd, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 54 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing net income through operational efficiencies and revenue growth.
Continue efforts to enhance operating income through cost management and revenue optimization.
Ensure stable cash flow from operations to support ongoing business activities.
Why it matters: More unemployment claims may mean the economy is weak. This could hurt WaFd's performance.
Confirms:Unemployment claims go over 300,000. This shows there is economic stress.
Disproves:Unemployment claims stay under 250,000. This shows the economy is stable.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below median, it could signal a slowdown in the financial sector.
Confirms:Revenue growth in the financial sector drops below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Maintaining cash flow is crucial for funding growth and operations. It shows financial health.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations is over $10 million for two straight quarters.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations falls below $5 million for two straight quarters.
Why it matters: A good dividend payout shows financial strength even with challenges in the sector.
Confirms:The cash dividend of $12.1875 per share is paid as scheduled.
Disproves:The dividend payout is delayed or canceled.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 16, 2026, WaFd, Inc. (the "Company") announced by press release its earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached to this filing as Exhibit 99.1. A copy of the March 31, 2026 Fact Sheet, which presents certain detailed financial information about the Company, is attached as Exhibit 99.2. This information is being furnished under Item 2.02 (Results of Operations and Financial Condition) of Form 8-K.