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VST
Vistra Corp.NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Independent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$148.02+1.12%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, although the company has a capital-friendly stance. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on whether VST cuts guidance on the next call, which could negatively impact estimates. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Utilities - Independent Power Producers
- Market cap
- $47.56B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2016-12-23
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-06
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $148.02. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$153.75consensus
Range $135.04 – $210.66
vs price: -4% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$400.55consensus
Range $365.77 – $452.55
vs price: -63% below
Method agreement — · 3 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peerslow confidence
At $148 VST trades at 25× p/e, in line with its 20× p/e peer median. Our $154 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Analysts: $190–$241. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
24.8x
peer 20.4x · own history 25.8x
Premium
1.2x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-4%
our forecast 1%
Our fair value
$153.75
range $135.03 – $203.16
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 4% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated strong grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=906).
88th pctl · Utilities
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 2.08x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1075).
45th pctl · Utilities
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
NeutralEPS revised +4.3% / 30d, n=8for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.96 → $2.05 (+4.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 8 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 90% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 37.3% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: utilities is in maturing, with stable trajectory (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$205.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$497.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,800.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 7d
Watch for Q2 Adjusted EBITDA results on August 6, 2026
Why it matters: This is a key measure of profit. Results below expectations may signal ongoing challenges.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 Adjusted EBITDA is under $300 million. This shows profit problems.
Disproves:Q2 Adjusted EBITDA is over $300 million. This shows better profit results.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for VST yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for utilities to grow revenue faster than 7% year over year.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for VST and other Utilities names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like CEG, NRG, and TLN keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Utilities sector momentum should keep lifting VST and other Utilities names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If VST raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-07), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If VST cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-07), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like CEG, NRG, and TLN start missing or guiding lower, the Utilities tailwind helping VST and other Utilities names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-071mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Vistra Corp. (the “Company”) issued a news release announcing, among other matters, its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of such news release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information set forth in this
Earnings preannouncement—
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-3.5 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.