Reading VSEC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VSEC free→Reading VSEC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VSEC free→NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been volatile, and risk is elevated, with the sector backdrop presenting a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 20% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. The outlook hinges on guidance from VSEC and the performance of sector bellwethers like GE, RTX, and BA. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $196.13. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $196 VSEC trades at 59× p/e — 1.5× the 38× p/e peer median, and above its own 25× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $140 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $210–$268. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 40% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 35%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.23x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.90 → $0.92 (+2.5% / 30d). 4 raised, 4 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$246.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$427.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,031.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'expensive' to 'full'.
As of June 12, 2026, the valuation changed, moving from "expensive" to "full." This reflects a shift in how the stock is priced relative to its peers. The risk remains elevated, indicating ongoing concerns in that dimension. The overall context suggests that while the stock is currently fairly priced, there are signs of weakening in recent financial performance and earnings quality.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The guidance will show how the Precision Aviation Group deal helps revenue.
Confirms:Q2 revenue guidance raised to reflect growth of 57% to 61% year-over-year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue guidance stays the same or goes lower than before.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for VSEC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
On May 5, 2026, pursuant to the Purchase Agreement, VSE acquired all of the capital stock of PAG HoldCo from the Seller for an up-front consideration equal to $2.025 billion, subject to customary adjustments, consisting of $1.75 billion in cash (the “Cash Consideration”) and approximately $275 million of newly issued Rollover Purchaser Shares (as defined below), and up to an additional $125 million in contingent payment payable in cash, shares of common stock, par value $0.05 per share, of VS…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$210.00 – $268.00 (median $245.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-05-10
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Aerospace & Defense.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
VSEC VSE Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | full | elevated |
GE GE Aerospace | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BA Boeing | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 18 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LMT Lockheed Martin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Finalize the acquisition of Precision Aviation Group to expand global footprint and enhance repair capabilities.
Continue the policy of distributing a quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share to shareholders.
Focus on enhancing cash flow from operating activities to support financial flexibility.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial health and care for shareholders.
Confirms:The quarterly dividend payment is $0.10 per share.
Disproves:There is news of a dividend cut or pause.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for VSE's future. A rebound could signal a stronger market position.
Confirms one read:Revenue growth speeds up to over 10% year over year.
Confirms the other:Revenue growth slows down to below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: This guidance shows how the deal affects profit and efficiency.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance raised to 18.1% to 18.5% for 2026.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance stays at or below 16.8% to 17.3%.
Why it matters: Negative cash flow means problems in running the business. Improvement is key for stability.
Confirms:Cash from operations will be positive next quarter.
Disproves:Cash from operations stays negative or gets worse next quarter.
Why it matters: Improved cash flow from operations is key for funding growth and managing debt.
Confirms:Operating cash flow has a big increase compared to Q1 2026.
Disproves:Operating cash flow goes down or stays the same compared to Q1 2026.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Exchange and Redemption Agreement On May 5, 2026, in connection with the Closing, VSE, Rollover Purchaser and Seller entered into an exchange and redemption agreement (the “Exchange Agreement”), as described in VSE’s Current Report on Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) on January 29, 2026 , which description is incorporated herein by reference. The foregoing description of the Exchange Agreement does not purport t…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, VSE Corporation (the "Company") issued a press release reporting its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. Additionally, the Company will make available related materials to be discussed during the Company’s webcast and conference call referred to in such press release. A copy of the press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is hereby incorporated by reference.…
Other Events On May 7, 2026, VSE Corporation issued a press release announcing that the Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share to be paid on July 29, 2026 to stockholders of record as of July 15, 2026. The Board of Directors approved the dividend on May 7, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information included under