Reading VSCO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VSCO free→Reading VSCO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VSCO free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel RetailSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Management's recent track record has been steady, although it has a capital-unfriendly stance. Earnings quality is neutral, and compared with sector peers, it is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 80% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $78.88. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $79 VSCO trades at 28× p/e — 1.8× the 16× p/e peer median, and above its own 13× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $44 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $56–$58. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 80% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.43x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.41 → $0.41 (-0.3% / 30d). 1 raised, 2 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 2 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 70% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 3.1% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 19.1% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$235.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$498.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,555.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation fell by 36.5 points (from 39.2 to 2.7).
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'cautious'.
Composite insight fell by 11.0 points (from -9.0 to -20.0).
Valuation fell. The signal changed to cautious. Composite insight fell.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Meeting this revenue target is key to staying on track for the year. It signals growth momentum.
Confirms:Q2 2026 revenue reported at $1.59B or higher.
Disproves:Q2 2026 revenue reported below $1.59B.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Increase revenue to $7.03B-$7.13B in FY 2026
Support from proxy advisors boosts management's turnaround efforts.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition and
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$56.00 – $58.00 (median $57.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-06-02
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Apparel Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
VSCO Victoria's Secret | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 6 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
TJX TJX Companies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ROST Ross Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BURL Burlington Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GAP Gap Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Victoria's Secret aims to increase its revenue to between $7.03 billion and $7.13 billion for fiscal year 2026.
Victoria's Secret targets net sales for the second quarter of 2026 to be between $1.59 billion and $1.615 billion.
Victoria's Secret aims to maintain growth in operating income through fiscal year 2026.
Targeting fiscal year 2026 net sales in the range of $6.85 billion to $6.95 billion.
Forecasting net sales for the first quarter of 2026 to be in the range of $1.49 billion to $1.525 billion.
Why it matters: Consumer spending impacts retail sales. A drop could signal trouble for Victoria's Secret.
Confirms:Consumer spending growth reported above 3% month over month.
Disproves:Consumer spending growth reported below 0% month over month.
Why it matters: The meeting will set the path for leaders after Mariam Naficy leaves. Changes can affect strategy.
Confirms one read:The election of a new board member with strong retail experience.
Confirms the other:No new board members are elected or leadership remains unchanged.
Advances: Increase revenue to $7.03B-$7.13B in FY 2026
Support from proxy advisors boosts management's turnaround efforts.
Leadership instability could impact strategic direction and execution.
Director — Mariam Naficy: Ms. Naficy decided not to stand for re-election due to professional commitments and the proxy contest.