Reading VRA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VRA free→Reading VRA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VRA free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryFootwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year, and risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a headwind, which may further challenge the company compared with its peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 44% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.79. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $3.79 VRA trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $7.48 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 49% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -15%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.14x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.01 → $0.01 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$267.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$759.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,020.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Management fell by 10.3 points (from 24.7 to 14.4) after fresh earnings.
As of June 12, 2026, management fell. This change reflects a decline in the management dimension following fresh earnings. The overall context remains provisional, with the company still classified as loss-making and facing an elevated risk level.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Revenue growth aligns with positive strategic direction.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On June 11, 2026 , Vera Bradley, Inc. issued an earnings press release for the quarterly period ended May 2, 2026. The press release, including attachments, is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
No score history yet for this stock.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3, 2027-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Footwear.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
VRA Vera Bradley Inc | — | inexpensive | elevated |
DECK Deckers Brands | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CROX Crocs | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
SHOO Steven Madden, Ltd. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
WWW Wolverine World Wide, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | fair | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on stabilizing the business with a revenue target range of $255 million to $270 million for fiscal 2027.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue for 2027-Q1 was $55.7M, down from $84.9M in 2026-Q4. The company has set a revenue target range of $255M-$270M for fiscal 2027, but current quarterly revenue suggests limited progress towards this goal.
“Based on the solid start to fiscal 2027, we now expect year-over-year non-GAAP operating loss improvement of at least 50%.”
“The Company continues to focus on stabilizing the business and plans for sales to be in the range of $255 million to $270 million.”
Anticipate improvements in gross profit and SG&A rates to enable operating loss improvement.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Gross profit was $28.8M in 2027-Q1, down from $40.6M in 2026-Q4. Despite management's focus on improving gross profit and SG&A rates, the financials show a decline, indicating limited progress.
Earnings transcript confirms positive outlook and strategy.
Significant improvement in operating loss signals positive future guidance.
Revenue growth missed forecasts, indicating potential issues.
Earnings miss suggests ongoing financial challenges.
“Due to continued operational focus, the Company anticipates improvements in gross profit and SG&A rates.”
“The Company anticipates improvements in gross profit and SG&A rates, enabling operating loss improvement by 40% or better.”