Reading VMI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VMI free→Reading VMI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VMI free→NYSEIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect future results. Earnings quality and management's track record are neutral, while the management's capital stance is capital-friendly. Peer multiples imply a price about 3% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, particularly how bellwethers perform. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $546.81. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $547 VMI trades at 27× p/e, in line with its 24× p/e peer median. Our $530 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $450–$600. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 3% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 0%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.33x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $5.78 → $5.80 (+0.4% / 30d). 5 raised, 0 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 14.9% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$139.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$259.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,948.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'full'.
As of June 12, 2026, the valuation changed, moving from fair to full. Risk fell, indicating a decrease in the overall risk profile. The sector backdrop is now viewed as a headwind, suggesting a less favorable environment for the company. The management capital stance remains capital-friendly, which reflects a supportive approach to capital allocation.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The industrials sector is slowing. Signs of growth could indicate a turnaround for Valmont.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth speeds up to over 10% compared to last year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth continues to decline or stays below 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for VMI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Chief Financial Officer and Corporate Secretary — Thomas Liguori: Mr. Liguori is retiring and being succeeded by John Schwietz.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$450.00 – $600.00 (median $501.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-28
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
VMI Valmont Industries | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | full | moderate |
PH Parker Hannifin | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | full | moderate |
ITW Illinois Tool Works | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GWW W. W. Grainger | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | full | moderate |
DOV Dover Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | fair | low |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Valmont aims to increase its full-year 2026 EPS outlook, reflecting improved financial performance.
Valmont targets net sales between $4.2 billion and $4.4 billion for the full year 2026.
Valmont is focused on improving its operating income through enhanced operational efficiency.
Why it matters: An increase in the EPS outlook would show stronger earnings potential for 2026.
Confirms:Management raises the 2026 EPS outlook. It is now above the current guidance.
Disproves:Management keeps the EPS outlook unchanged or lowers it.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well Valmont is managing in a slowing sector. Strong results could boost confidence.
Confirms:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth above 8% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Hitting this sales target would indicate strong demand and growth in 2026.
Confirms:Net sales for Q2 reach or exceed $4.2 billion.
Disproves:Net sales for Q2 fall below $4.0 billion.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Valmont Industries, Inc. issued a press release on April 21, 2026 announcing its financial results for its fiscal quarter ended March 28, 2026. The press release is furnished with this Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1. The information in
Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Corporate Secretary — John Schwietz: Mr. Schwietz was promoted to a senior executive role.