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VIAV
VIAVI SolutionsNASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$53.46+6.41%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been fairly steady. However, the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 75% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. If VIAV cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Communication Equipment
- Market cap
- $12.00B
- Employees
- 3,600
- IPO date
- 1996-09-26
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $53.46. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$30.52consensus
Range $18.79 – $32.42
vs price: +75% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$104.75consensus
Range $70.11 – $198.35
vs price: -49% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratingmedium confidence
At $53 VIAV trades at 69× p/e — 1.8× the 40× p/e peer median, and above its own 24× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $31 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
69.4x
peer 39.6x · own history 24.0x
Premium
1.8x peer
2.9x its own history
Growth the price needs
75%
our forecast 19%
Our fair value
$30.52
range $18.61 – $32.42
WhyExtended vs its own history
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 75% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 19%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
91st pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -1.29x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutral2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +25.7% / 30d, n=7for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.24 → $0.30 (+25.7% / 30d). 6 raised, 0 cut, 7 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 88% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: is in (~1.0 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$332.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$504.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,113.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 14d
Watch for gross profit margins improving past 92.9%
Why it matters: Improving gross profit margins would show that VIAVI is managing costs well. This would support its goal of increasing profitability.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Gross profit margins improve to above 92.9%.
Disproves:Gross profit margins decline or stay below 92.9%.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-1220h agoYahoo! Finance
Advances: Increase revenue growth
Acquisition boosts revenue growth and demand.
Strongly reinforcesConfirmed
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in Information Technology to fall below the median.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for VIAV and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like CSCO, MSI, and LITE keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting VIAV and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If VIAV raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If VIAV cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like CSCO, MSI, and LITE start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping VIAV and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2123d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. Underwriting Agreement On May 19, 2026, Viavi Solutions Inc. (the “ Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated (“Stifel”) and Needham & Company, LLC (“Needham & Company”), as representatives of the several underwriters named therein (collectively, the “Underwriters”), relating to the public offering, issuance and sale (the “ Offering”) of 11,111,111 shares of the Company’s common stock, par value…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-0.7 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.