Reading USPH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track USPH free→Reading USPH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track USPH free→NYSEHealth CareMedical Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is robust. Management's recent track record has been neutral. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, its valuation is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 56% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $65.56. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $66 the market pays 25× p/e — above the 14× p/e peer median but in line with its own 33× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $42 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 57% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.41x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated robust grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.80 → $0.82 (+1.4% / 30d). 2 raised, 3 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$101.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$333.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,588.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop below 10% revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the sector. This would impact investor confidence in USPH's growth plans.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported above 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for USPH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL RESULTS. On May 6, 2026, U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (NYSE, NYSE Texas: USPH), a national operator of outpatient physical therapy clinics and provider of industrial injury prevention services, reported results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibits, shall not be deemed to be "filed"…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Facilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
USPH U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
HCA HCA Healthcare | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | fair | moderate |
THC Tenet Health | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | elevated |
EHC Encompass Health | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | full | moderate |
UHS Universal Health Services | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on growing revenue by expanding the number of clinics.
Continue to provide consistent dividend payments to shareholders.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Why it matters: Improving operating income is crucial for long-term growth. Weak results could raise concerns.
Confirms:Operating income is better in Q2 results than in earlier quarters.
Disproves:Operating income stays the same or drops in Q2 results.
Why it matters: Updates on clinic expansion are key to revenue growth. Delays could hinder overall performance.
Confirms:Management shares news about new clinics or expansion plans in Q2 earnings.
Disproves:Management did not update on clinic expansion in Q2 earnings.
OTHER EVENTS The Company’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.46 which will be payable on June 12, 2026 to shareholders of record on May 22, 2026.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 14, 2026, U. S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (the “Company”), a national operator of outpatient physical therapy clinics and provider of industrial injury prevention services, entered into the Fourth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) among Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent (“Administrative Agent”) and the lenders from time-to-time party thereto. The Credit Agreement syndicate consists of BofA Securities,…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. See