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USFD
US FoodsNYSEConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$93.32+2.29%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, USFD is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 39% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer Staples
- Industry
- Food Distribution
- Market cap
- $19.93B
- Employees
- 30,000
- IPO date
- 2016-02-09
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $93.32. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$67.31consensus
Range $62.25 – $111.48
vs price: +39% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$164.72consensus
Range $134.17 – $184.56
vs price: -43% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiumlow confidence
At $93 the market pays 24× p/e — above the 17× p/e peer median but in line with its own 21× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $67 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $88–$117. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
24.2x
peer 17.4x · own history 21.4x
Premium
1.4x peer
1.1x its own history
Growth the price needs
39%
our forecast 3%
Our fair value
$67.31
range $63.66 – $118.55
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 39% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
50th pctl · Consumer Staples
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.88x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1382).
63rd pctl · Consumer Staples
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bearish14 analysts, 80% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.39 → $1.37 (-2.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 10 cut, 14 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 80% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 7.5% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: is in (~3.0 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$102.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$237.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,109.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceWeeksactive 7d
Watch for changes in consumer price index on June 10
Why it matters: CPI affects food prices and consumer spending, impacting US Foods' sales.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:CPI shows an increase, suggesting higher food prices and potential sales growth.
Confirms the other:CPI is down. This means food prices are lower, which may hurt sales.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for USFD yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Consumer Price Index data on June 10
- Watch for Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report on June 17
- Watch for FOMC decision on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If USFD raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-07), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for USFD and other Consumer Staples names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit USFD and other Consumer Staples names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
Downside triggers
- If USFD cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-07), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- Consumer Staples has been in a strong run; if sector bellwethers like SYY, PFGC, and CHEF start showing cracks (missed prints, soft guidance), USFD and other Consumer Staples names could lose the sector tailwind.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0211d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 28, 2026, US Foods, Inc. (“US Foods”) entered into an amendment (the “Amendment”) to its existing ABL Credit Agreement, dated as of May 31, 2019, as amended, restated, modified or supplemented from time to time, by and among US Foods, the other Loan Parties (defined in the ABL Agreement), each lender and issuing lender from time to time party thereto, and Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as administrative agent and collateral agent (th…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-2.2 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.