Reading UNM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UNM free→Reading UNM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UNM free→NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with UNM trading below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 16% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers like AFL, MET, and PRU. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $92.73. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $93 UNM trades at 15× p/e, in line with its 13× p/e peer median. Our $80 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $81–$96. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 16% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.86x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.16 → $2.16 (-0.1% / 30d). 4 raised, 3 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 69% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 2.9% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$83.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$206.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,605.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This increase shows confidence in cash flow and financial health. It may attract more investors.
Confirms:The company confirms the dividend increase in a press release or earnings call.
Disproves:The company will keep the current dividend. There will be no increase.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for UNM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On May 21, 2026, Unum Group announced that its Board of Directors has authorized an increase in the quarterly dividend to be paid on its common stock. The new quarterly dividend rate of 50.5 cents per common share, or $2.02 per share on an annual basis, will be effective with the dividend expected to be paid in the third quarter of 2026. A copy of the news release concerning the dividend increase is filed herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$81.00 – $96.00 (median $86.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-21
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Life & Health Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
UNM Unum | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 14 of 100 | full | moderate |
AFL Aflac | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | full | moderate |
MET MetLife | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
PRU Prudential Financial | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | inexpensive | low |
PFG Principal Financial Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | fair | low |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Unum's board has authorized a 10% increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.505 per share, effective in Q3 2026.
Unum aims to sustain strong operating income growth, as evidenced by recent financial performance.
Unum is focused on enhancing cash from operating activities to support its financial health.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is performing. It can affect stock price.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share exceeds analyst expectations by more than 5%.
Confirms the other:Earnings per share falls short of analyst expectations by more than 5%.
Why it matters: Strong growth in operating income shows the business is doing well. This helps future profits.
Confirms:Operating income growth exceeds 5% year over year in the next earnings report.
Disproves:Operating income growth falls below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a slowdown in the financial sector. It could impact Unum's performance.
Confirms:Unum's revenue growth falls below the median of 12% in the next quarter.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays above the median of 12% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Improved cash flow shows better financial health. It can support growth and dividends.
Confirms one read:Cash from operating activities increases by more than 10% in the next quarter.
Confirms the other:Cash from operating activities goes down or grows by less than 5%.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026, Unum Group (the "Company") issued a news release reporting its results for the first quarter of 2026, a copy of which is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. Also on April 28, 2026, the Company posted on its website at www.unum.com the Statistical Supplement relating to its financial results for the first quarter of 2026. A copy of the Statistical Supplement is furnished herewith as Exhibit 9…