Reading UHS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UHS free→Reading UHS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UHS free→NYSEHealth CareMedical Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is mixed, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 51% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact UHS's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $146.42. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $146 UHS trades at 6× p/e, below its 14× p/e peer median. Our $286 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $165–$310. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 49% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 15%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.25x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $5.76 → $5.89 (+2.4% / 30d). 4 raised, 8 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 40% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 12.9% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$113.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$291.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,160.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth below this level may signal a slowdown in demand for healthcare services.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 9.6% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains above 9.6% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for UHS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Executive Vice President of the Company and President, Behavioral Health — Matthew J. Peterson: Mr. Peterson resigned to pursue an external career opportunity.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$165.00 – $310.00 (median $204.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-06-01
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Facilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
UHS Universal Health Services | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
HCA HCA Healthcare | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | fair | moderate |
THC Tenet Health | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | elevated |
EHC Encompass Health | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | full | moderate |
ENSG Ensign Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
UHS aims to increase its revenue forecast for the fiscal year 2026.
UHS is focused on maintaining its EPS growth trajectory.
UHS is committed to managing its capital expenditures within the forecasted range.
Why it matters: An increase in revenue forecast would show strong growth momentum for UHS.
Confirms:Management raises the revenue forecast by more than 5% during the next earnings call.
Disproves:Management keeps the revenue forecast the same or lowers it.
Why it matters: Keeping EPS growth above this level shows strong profits and good operations.
Confirms:EPS growth reported above $5.62 per diluted share in Q2.
Disproves:EPS growth reported below $5.62 per diluted share in Q2.
Why it matters: Completing this purchase could help UHS's services. It may also boost its market position.
Confirms:A news release confirms the Talkspace purchase is complete.
Disproves:A news release says there are delays or problems with the purchase.
Why it matters: Good management of capital spending is key for UHS's financial health.
Confirms one read:Management says capital spending will drop by more than 10% in the next call.
Confirms the other:Management says capital spending will rise by more than 10%.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 27, 2026, Universal Health Services, Inc. issued the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Senior Secured Credit Facility On April 22, 2026, Universal Health Services, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Eleventh Amendment and Increased Facility Activation Notice (the “Eleventh Amendment”) to its Credit Agreement, dated as of November 15, 2010 (as amended by the First Amendment dated as of March 15, 2011, the Second Amendment dated as of September 21, 2012, the Third Amendment dated as of May 16, 2013, the Fourth Amendment dated as of Augu…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in response to
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 25, 2026, Universal Health Services, Inc. issued the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.