Reading UFPI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UFPI free→
UFPI
UFP IndustriesNASDAQIndustrialsLumber & Wood ProductionSnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· this month
$84.56+0.14%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes, but it is capital-friendly. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, UFPI trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 3% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Lumber & Wood Production
- Market cap
- $4.77B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1996-08-12
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-27
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $84.56. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$82.10consensus
Range $79.97 – $99.07
vs price: +3% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$86.56consensus
Range $60.49 – $112.62
vs price: -2% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfull
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peershigh confidence
At $85 UFPI trades at 18× p/e, in line with its 18× p/e peer median. Our $82 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
18.5x
peer 17.9x · own history 15.4x
Premium
1.0x peer
1.2x its own history
Growth the price needs
3%
our forecast -12%
Our fair value
$82.10
range $79.97 – $106.21
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced inStretched
The market is pricing in roughly 3% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about -12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
45th pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 2.06x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
71st pctl · Industrials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BearishEPS revised -12.9% / 30d, n=1for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.64 → $1.43 (-12.9% / 30d). 0 raised, 5 cut, 1 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 60% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$119.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$286.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,129.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 14d
Watch for the next dividend announcement after June 15, 2026
Why it matters: If dividends keep increasing, it shows strong cash flow. It also shows commitment to shareholders.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:The company will raise its quarterly dividend above $0.36 after June 15, 2026.
Disproves:The company maintains or cuts the dividend from $0.36 after June 15, 2026.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for UFPI yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like SSD and BCC keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting UFPI and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If UFPI raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If UFPI cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like SSD and BCC start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping UFPI and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits UFPI and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0112d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On May 29, 2026, the Board of Directors of UFP Industries, Inc. (the “Company”) authorized the repurchase of up to $300 million shares of the Company’s outstanding common stock. The authorization expires on April 30, 2027, and supersedes and replaces any prior share repurchase authorizations. Share repurchases pursuant to the authorization may be made from time to time in the open market, through privately negotiated transactions, or by other means, including pursuant to Rule 10…
Capital allocationpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-5.2 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.