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UDR
UDR, Inc.NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$39.40+0.74%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is neutral, and the company is capital-friendly in its approach to capital management. Risk is low, but the sector backdrop is a headwind, with UDR trading above typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 11% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. The analysis is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Reit - Residential
- Market cap
- $14.49B
- Employees
- 1,420
- IPO date
- 1994-03-31
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-29
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $39.40. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$35.81consensus
Range $24.41 – $53.12
vs price: +10% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$55.37consensus
Range $39.77 – $70.73
vs price: -29% below
Method agreement — · 3 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiummedium confidence
At $39 the market pays 29× p/e — above the 18× p/e peer median but in line with its own 82× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $36 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts: $35–$41. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
29.4x
peer 17.9x · own history 81.8x
Premium
1.6x peer
0.4x its own history
Growth the price needs
10%
our forecast 10%
Our fair value
$35.95
range $26.13 – $57.43
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 10% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
97th pctl · Real Estate
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.78x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
49th pctl · Real Estate
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, the US dollar.
Management & capital allocation
stableEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BullishEPS revised +8.8% / 30d, n=8for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.11 → $0.12 (+8.8% / 30d). 2 raised, 2 cut, 8 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 36% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 2.7% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: real estate is in maturing, with decelerating (~1.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
Met or beat guidance 33% of the last 3 guided quarters · 50.1% avg surprise
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$66.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$183.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,816.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
lowas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 18d
Watch for dividend per share updates
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend is important. It helps build trust with investors and keeps income steady.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Management says the dividend per share will stay the same or go up.
Disproves:Management announces a cut to the dividend per share.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for UDR yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impact of upcoming economic reports on Real Estate
- Watch for revenue growth across major REITs to re-accelerate
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for UDR and other Real Estate names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like AVB, EQR, and ESS keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Real Estate sector momentum should keep lifting UDR and other Real Estate names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If UDR beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a very large beat off a near-zero prior-year base on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If UDR reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-04-29), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like AVB, EQR, and ESS start missing or guiding lower, the Real Estate tailwind helping UDR and other Real Estate names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-291mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, UDR, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. This press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Report and refers to supplemental financial information that is available on the Company’s website and furnished as Exhibit 99.2 to this Report. This information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 19…
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-2.0 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.