Reading UA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UA free→Reading UA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UA free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel ManufacturingSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly, and risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, it is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 7% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $5.88. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $5.88 UA trades at 1× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $6.34 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 7% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.15x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$202.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$395.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,286.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Under Armour is making more money.
Confirms one read:Operating income goes up year over year in the Q1 earnings report.
Confirms the other:Operating income goes down year over year in the Q1 earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Negative outlook impacts investor sentiment and valuation.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 12, 2026, Under Armour, Inc. (“Under Armour”, or the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended March 31, 2026. A copy of Under Armour’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. Under Armour has scheduled a conference call for 8:30 a.m. ET on May 12, 2026 to discuss its financial results.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
UA Under Armour (Class C) | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 21 of 100 | fair | elevated |
NKE Nike, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
TPR Tapestry, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | full | moderate |
RL Ralph Lauren Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | full | moderate |
LULU Lululemon Athletica | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by strategy shifts. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue the restructuring plan to enhance financial and operational efficiencies.
Focus on improving operating income through strategic initiatives.
Aim to enhance gross profit through improved margins and cost management.
Why it matters: Higher costs could mean trouble in making money.
Confirms:Restructuring costs are over $255 million in pre-tax charges.
Disproves:Restructuring costs are at or below the $255 million estimate.
Why it matters: A drop in gross profit shows ongoing problems with making money. This could hurt investor feelings.
Confirms:Gross profit decreases further from $492.04M in Q1 2027.
Disproves:Gross profit increases or stabilizes above $492.04M in Q1 2027.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows Under Armour is making progress. This could help investors feel more confident.
Confirms:Operating income improves to less than -$30M in Q1 2027.
Disproves:Operating income worsens or stays worse than -$33.70M in Q1 2027.
Costs Associated With Exit or Disposal Activities. On May 12, 2026, the Company announced an update to its previously disclosed fiscal year 2025 restructuring plan designed to strengthen and support its financial and operational efficiencies. Previously, the Company expected to incur up to $255 million of pre-tax restructuring and related charges in connection with its fiscal year 2025 restructuring plan. After further review, the Company has identified additional opportunities. On May 11, 20…