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TWO
Two Harbors Investment Corp.NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· this month
$12.34+0.08%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, it is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 36% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This analysis is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Reit - Mortgage
- Market cap
- $1.30B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2009-12-11
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-27
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $12.34. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$8.40consensus
Range $7.40 – $9.21
vs price: +47% above
Method agreement — · 4 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfull
$11.54consensus
Range $9.42 – $13.66
vs price: +7% above
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiummedium confidence
At $12 the market pays 13× p/e — above the 9× p/e peer median but in line with its own 11× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $7.61 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
12.9x
peer 9.2x · own history 11.4x
Premium
1.4x peer
1.1x its own history
Growth the price needs
62%
our forecast -0%
Our fair value
$7.61
range $6.86 – $8.56
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 62% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 0%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
10th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -0.10x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral3 analysts, 0% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.29 → $0.29 (+0.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 5.2% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth (~3.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$64.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$282.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,681.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayMedium confidenceQuartersactive 14d
Watch for any changes in dividend payments
Why it matters: Changes in dividends can show if a company is doing well or struggling. Keeping dividends shows they care about shareholders.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Announcement of a stable or increased dividend per share in the next quarter.
Confirms the other:A notice about cutting or stopping a dividend.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TWO yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
- Watch for changes in FOMC interest rate policy on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like NLY, STWD, and RITM keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting TWO and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
Downside triggers
- If TWO reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-08), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on TWO and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like NLY, STWD, and RITM start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping TWO and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits TWO and other Financials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-081mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 7, 2026, Two Harbors Investment Corp. (“Two Harbors”) entered into a Second Amendment to the Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Second Amendment”), by and among Two Harbors, CrossCountry Intermediate Holdco, LLC (“CCM”) and CrossCountry Merger Corp., a wholly owned subsidiary of CCM (“Merger Sub”), to amend the terms of the previously disclosed Agreement and Plan of Merger, dated March 27, 2026 (the “Original CCM Merger Agreement”), as amende…
M&A activitypositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+18 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.