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TTWO
Take-Two InteractiveNASDAQCommunication ServicesElectronic Gaming & MultimediaSnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· 1–3 mo
$211.75-0.16%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 275% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. If TTWO cuts guidance on the next call, that could have a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Electronic Gaming & Multimedia
- Market cap
- $39.37B
- Employees
- 12,909
- IPO date
- 1997-09-15
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $211.75. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$61.20consensus
Range $43.43 – $81.01
vs price: +246% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$104.75consensus
Range $83.31 – $180.34
vs price: +102% above
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiumlow confidence
At $212 the market pays 52× p/e — above the 19× p/e peer median but in line with its own 53× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $61 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $280–$300. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
51.6x
peer 18.5x · own history 52.6x
Premium
2.8x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
246%
our forecast 14%
Our fair value
$61.20
range $44.14 – $81.01
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 246% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 14%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=902).
31st pctl · Communication Services
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -2.09x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
stable1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Communication Services names rated stable grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=208).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BullishEPS revised +32.9% / 30d, n=10for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.31 → $-0.21 (+32.9% / 30d). 3 raised, 1 cut, 10 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 97% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 22.0% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: is in (~0.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$109.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$295.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,768.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 18d
Watch for the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI on November 19, 2026
Why it matters: This game is expected to drive significant revenue growth and set a new performance baseline.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:The launch was successful. Sales went over $1 billion in the first week.
Disproves:Launch fails to meet sales expectations, with less than $500 million in sales in the first week.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TTWO yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth cooling below 10% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for TTWO and other Communication Services names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like NTES, EA, and RBLX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Communication Services sector momentum should keep lifting TTWO and other Communication Services names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If TTWO raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-21), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If TTWO cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-21), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like NTES, EA, and RBLX start missing or guiding lower, the Communication Services tailwind helping TTWO and other Communication Services names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2123d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 21, 2026 , Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the financial results of the Company for its fourth fiscal quarter and fiscal year ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached to this Current Report as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. The information included in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, that is furnished pursuant to…
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-1.4 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.