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TT
Trane TechnologiesNYSEIndustrialsBuilding Products & EquipmentSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$458.25-0.41%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, TT is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 92% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. Rich on today's multiple, the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. This analysis is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Building Products & Equipment
- Market cap
- $99.28B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2009-08-06
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-29
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $458.25. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$238.69consensus
Range $222.78 – $313.65
vs price: +92% above
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$505.34consensus
Range $348.85 – $695.36
vs price: -9% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiumlow confidence
At $458 the market pays 35× p/e — above the 18× p/e peer median but in line with its own 33× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $239 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $475–$585. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
35.2x
peer 17.9x · own history 32.9x
Premium
2.0x peer
1.1x its own history
Growth the price needs
92%
our forecast 17%
Our fair value
$238.88
range $224.91 – $313.65
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 92% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 17%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
51st pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.20x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
32nd pctl · Industrials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral21 analysts, 54% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $4.29 → $4.26 (-0.8% / 30d). 3 raised, 17 cut, 21 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 54% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 16.8% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in maturing (~3.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$113.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$280.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,997.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 7d
Watch for Q2 organic revenue growth below 7%
Why it matters: This growth rate is key to meeting the full-year target of 9.5%.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 organic revenue growth was below 7%.
Disproves:Q2 organic revenue growth reported at or above 7%.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TT yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like JCI, CARR, and LII keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting TT and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for TT and other Industrials names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If TT reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-04-30), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like JCI, CARR, and LII start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping TT and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits TT and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-103d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 4, 2026, the Board of Directors of Trane Technologies plc (the “Company”) appointed Donald E. Simmons, age 55, as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of the Company effective as of July 1 2026 (the “Effective Date”). Mr. Simmons has served as Group President, Americas since January 2024. He previously served as Americas Seg…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.1 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.