Reading TSLA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TSLA free→Reading TSLA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TSLA free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. However, risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with TSLA trading below typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 154% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. If TSLA cuts guidance on the next call, that could have a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $406.43. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $406, TSLA's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 16× p/s (7.4× the 2× p/s peer median, and 1.1× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~154% near-term growth vs our ~5% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $160 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $364–$475. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 154% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 4.28x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.45 → $0.45 (+0.4% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 25 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 48% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$187.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$461.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,993.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth may mean a slowdown in consumer spending.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above 12% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Volume production of Cybercab and Tesla Semi
Improved vehicle durability enhances competitive position in EV market.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of Form 8-K, “Results of Operations and Financial Condition” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$364.00 – $475.00 (median $435.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-04-23
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automobile Manufacturers.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
GM General Motors | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
F Ford Motor Company | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
RIVN Rivian Automotive Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 7 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
XPEV XPeng Inc | — | — | elevated |
Not enough signal yet.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Tesla aims to achieve volume production of both Cybercab and Tesla Semi in 2026.
Tesla continues to invest in infrastructure to support clean energy, transport, and autonomous robots.
Tesla is ramping AI compute and battery production to support future growth.
Tesla remains focused on long-term growth and value creation despite near-term uncertainties.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Tesla continues to beat expectations.
Confirms:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 15% year over year.
Disproves:Earnings report shows revenue growth below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Cash flow trends will indicate Tesla's ability to fund growth and operations.
Confirms one read:Free cash flow exceeds $1.5 billion in Q2 2026.
Confirms the other:Free cash flow falls below $1 billion in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on Cybercab production show how Tesla is meeting its growth goals.
Confirms:Production volume of Cybercab exceeds 10,000 units in the next quarter.
Disproves:Production volume of Cybercab falls below 5,000 units in the next quarter.
Why it matters: New clean energy investments show Tesla cares about its goals.
Confirms:They announced over $500 million for new clean energy projects.
Disproves:No new clean energy investments announced in the next quarter.
Threatens: Ramp AI compute and battery production
Battery moat thinning could impact supply chain objectives.
Merger hints could impact strategic direction.
Advances: Volume production of Cybercab and Tesla Semi
Progress on Robotaxi supports volume production goals.
Speculation on a merger could impact Tesla's strategic direction.
Advances: Invest in clean energy and transport infrastructure
Increased price target reflects strong demand for Tesla's energy products.
Advances: Volume production of Cybercab and Tesla Semi
Achieving Level 4 autonomy supports Cybercab production goals.
Advances: Volume production of Cybercab and Tesla Semi
Positive delivery forecast supports Cybercab and Semi production goals.
of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing .
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 28, 2026, Tesla, Inc. released its financial results for the fiscal quarter and year ended December 31, 2025 by posting its Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Update on its website. The full text of the update is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference . This information is intended to be furnished under
of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing .