Reading TSCO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TSCO free→Reading TSCO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TSCO free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance compared to sector peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 18% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of bellwethers in the Consumer Discretionary sector. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $31.25. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $31 TSCO trades at 15× p/e, below its 18× p/e peer median. Our $38 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $36–$60. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 19% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.40x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.86 → $0.86 (-0.1% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 21 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 53% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 70.2% above current price.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$131.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$312.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,308.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Weak store sales may show problems with customer demand and market share.
Confirms:Q2 store sales growth was below 1%.
Disproves:Q2 store sales growth was above 3%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TSCO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On May 19, 2026, Tractor Supply Company (the “Company”) entered into an Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, by and among the Company, as Borrower, certain lenders, and Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as Administrative Agent (the “Amended Credit Agreement”). The credit facility provided pursuant to the Amended Credit Agreement (the “Senior Credit Facility”) amends and restates the Company’s existing credit agreement. Outstanding borrowings…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$36.00 – $60.00 (median $51.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-06-05
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Other Specialty Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TSCO Tractor Supply | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | fair | elevated |
ULTA Ulta Beauty | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CHWY Chewy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | fair | elevated |
BBWI Bath & Body Works, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
VGNT Versigent PLC | — | — | low |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Tractor Supply reaffirms its financial guidance for fiscal year 2026, including net sales growth and EPS targets.
Tractor Supply aims to maintain an operating margin rate between 9.3% and 9.6% for fiscal year 2026.
Tractor Supply plans capital expenditures between $675 million and $725 million for fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in operating margin may mean rising costs and lower profits.
Confirms:Operating margin rate was below 9.3%.
Disproves:Operating margin rate was above 9.6%.
Why it matters: Plans for capital spending show how Tractor Supply is investing for growth.
Confirms:Management shares a clear plan for capital spending that matches growth goals.
Disproves:No clear plan for capital spending is given. This shows uncertainty.
Why it matters: Keeping the operating margin is important for Tractor Supply's profits. Costs are rising.
Confirms:Operating margin rate stays the same or gets better.
Disproves:Operating margin rate goes down. This shows cost pressures are getting worse.
Why it matters: Slower digital sales could lower total revenue. This may weaken the market position.
Confirms:Digital sales growth was below double digits.
Disproves:Digital sales growth was at or above double digits.
Other Events On May 28, 2026, Tractor Supply Company (the "Company") issued a press release announcing it has acquired the veterinary services business VIP Petcare (operating as VIP Petcare and PetVet) from PetIQ, a Bansk Group company. A copy of the Press Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant The information set forth under
Other Events. On May 14, 2026, the Company issued the press release furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 announcing the Company's declaration of a cash dividend of $0.24 per share of outstanding common stock payable June 9, 2026, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on May 27, 2026.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 21, 2026, Tractor Supply Company (the "Company") issued a press release reporting its results of operations for the first quarter ended March 28, 2026. Additionally, the Company reaffirmed guidance for the results of operations expected for the full fiscal year ending December 26, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1.