Reading TRUP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TRUP free→Reading TRUP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TRUP free→NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly, and risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, TRUP is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 30% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $23.65. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $24 the market pays 19× p/e — above the 13× p/e peer median but in line with its own 19× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $18 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $34–$45. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 31% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 15%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.42x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.95 → $0.94 (-1.1% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$196.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$418.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,198.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key priority for Trupanion. A drop below 10% signals trouble.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported at or above 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TRUP yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, the Company issued a press release regarding the Company's financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$34.00 – $45.00 (median $35.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-04-09
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Life & Health Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TRUP Trupanion | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 16 of 100 | full | elevated |
AFL Aflac | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | full | moderate |
MET MetLife | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
PRU Prudential Financial | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | inexpensive | low |
PFG Principal Financial Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | fair | low |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through market expansion and customer acquisition.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Focus on enhancing net income through strategic initiatives and cost control.
Why it matters: Net income growth is on track. Staying above 15% shows strong financial health.
Confirms:Net income growth reported above 15% year over year.
Disproves:Net income growth reported below 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Net income is a key indicator of financial health. A drop below $4 million raises concerns.
Confirms:Net income in Q2 reported below $4 million.
Disproves:Net income in Q2 exceeds $4 million.
Why it matters: Better operating income is important for management. It shows they control costs well.
Confirms:Operating income is higher than last quarter.
Disproves:Operating income is lower than last quarter.
Director — Max Brodén: Mr. Brodén will not stand for re-election due to personal reasons.