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TRMK
Trustmark Corp.NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· this month
$45.91+1.10%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well supported by cash. Risk is low, but the sector backdrop presents a headwind, which may affect performance compared to peers, where TRMK is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. Key factors to watch include the potential impact of interest rate changes and the performance of sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Banks - Regional
- Market cap
- $2.66B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1994-03-29
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-28
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $45.91. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$45.15consensus
Range $37.13 – $47.04
vs price: +2% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$46.58consensus
Range $33.87 – $53.72
vs price: -1% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $46 TRMK trades at 12× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $43 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
12.1x
peer 12.4x · own history 11.5x
Premium
1.0x peer
1.1x its own history
Growth the price needs
6%
our forecast 11%
Our fair value
$43.36
range $35.62 – $46.29
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 6% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
45th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 0.83x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
19th pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish6 analysts, 17% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.95 → $0.96 (+0.7% / 30d). 4 raised, 1 cut, 6 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 17% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme capital-markets/rates.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- weak
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$80.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$188.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,067.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
lowas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
As of June 12, 2026, the valuation changed, rising to a full label. The earnings quality remained fragile, indicating ongoing concerns in that area. The macro backdrop is currently unfavorable, with headwinds present in the sector backdrop.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 14d
Watch for revenue growth dropping below median
Why it matters: The sector is currently growing. If Trustmark's revenue growth drops, it may signal trouble ahead.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Trustmark's revenue growth falls below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays above 10% year over year.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TRMK yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
- Watch for changes in FOMC interest rate policy on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting TRMK and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If TRMK beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a beat of +8% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on TRMK and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping TRMK and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits TRMK and other Financials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-281mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026, Trustmark Corporation issued a press release announcing its financial results for the period ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release and the accompanying financial statements and slide presentation are attached hereto as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 to this report and incorporated herein by reference.
Earnings preannouncement—
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+8.3 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.