Reading TRMB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TRMB free→Reading TRMB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TRMB free→NASDAQInformation TechnologyScientific & Technical InstrumentsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile, meaning profits lack cash support. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Compared with sector peers, TRMB is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 39% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This is because it trades below peer multiples, but earnings quality is fragile. If TRMB cuts guidance on the next call, that could be negative.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $50.42. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $50 TRMB trades at 15× p/e, below its 28× p/e peer median. Our $82 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 39% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.11x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 65% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.80 → $0.80 (+0.7% / 30d). 5 raised, 3 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$128.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$316.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,134.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Slowing ARR growth may mean problems with the Connect & Scale strategy.
Confirms:ARR growth drops below 10% year-over-year.
Disproves:ARR growth remains at or above 12% year-over-year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TRMB yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Director — Mark S. Peek: Mr. Peek resigned from his role as a director and related committee memberships.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Electronic Equipment & Instruments.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TRMB Trimble Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
KEYS Keysight Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ROP Roper Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
TDY Teledyne Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | full | moderate |
ZBRA Zebra Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 6 guided quarters · 69.8% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue executing the Connect & Scale strategy to enhance integration and growth.
Focus on increasing ARR to drive sustainable growth.
Continue the share repurchase program to enhance shareholder value.
Trimble aims to achieve revenue between $3,835 million and $3,915 million for 2026.
Trimble aims for non-GAAP EPS between $3.47 and $3.64 for 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below median, it signals a potential slowdown in the sector.
Confirms:Trimble's revenue growth drops below the sector median growth rate.
Disproves:Trimble's revenue growth remains above the sector median growth rate.
Why it matters: Raising guidance shows strong growth and trust in the Connect & Scale strategy.
Confirms:Trimble raises its Q2 revenue guidance above $963 million.
Disproves:Trimble keeps Q2 revenue guidance at or below $938 million.
Why it matters: Earnings per share guidance affects how investors see profit and growth.
Confirms:Management raises EPS guidance for 2026. This is above current estimates.
Disproves:Management lowers EPS guidance or keeps it unchanged.
Why it matters: This guidance shows how management views future sales growth. It is crucial for investor confidence.
Confirms:Management raises Q2 revenue guidance. This is higher than what was expected.
Disproves:Management lowers Q2 revenue guidance or keeps it the same.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Trimble Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release reporting its financial results for the quarter ended April 3, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this report, including the exhibit, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), nor be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Excha…
Senior Vice President in charge of Strategy, Corporate Development, Corporate Partnerships and Alliances, and Trimble’s Office of Technology Innovation — Peter Large: Senior Vice President Peter Large is retiring, but no disagreement with the company.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 10, 2026, Trimble Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release reporting its financial results for the quarter and year ended January 2, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this report, including the exhibit, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), nor be incorporated by reference in any filin…