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TPR
Tapestry, Inc.NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLuxury GoodsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· 1–3 mo
$147.42+1.40%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate, while TPR trades above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 16% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Luxury Goods
- Market cap
- $28.53B
- Employees
- 19,000
- IPO date
- 2000-06-16
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-13
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $147.42. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$127.21consensus
Range $110.89 – $143.35
vs price: +16% above
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$177.91consensus
Range $143.12 – $383.86
vs price: -17% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peerslow confidence
At $147 TPR trades at 22× p/e, in line with its 18× p/e peer median. Our $125 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Analysts: $142–$187. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
21.8x
peer 18.3x · own history 13.4x
Premium
1.2x peer
1.6x its own history
Growth the price needs
18%
our forecast 11%
Our fair value
$124.87
range $110.89 – $143.68
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 18% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
40th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 2.87x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
77th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish16 analysts, 71% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.25 → $1.25 (-0.1% / 30d). 16 raised, 0 cut, 16 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 71% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 29.2% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer discretionary is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- strong
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$155.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$326.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,920.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 14d
Watch for Q3 revenue growth below $1.9 billion
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key to reaching the $7.75 billion target for FY 2026. If growth slows, it raises concerns about overall performance.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q3 revenue was below $1.9 billion. This shows slower growth.
Disproves:Q3 revenue was above $1.9 billion. This shows growth momentum.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TPR yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for consumer revenue growth dropping below median
- Watch for changes in unemployment claims on June 4
- Watch for retail sales data on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like SIG, CPRI, and MOV keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting TPR and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for TPR and other Consumer Discretionary names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If TPR reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-07), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like SIG, CPRI, and MOV start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping TPR and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits TPR and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-071mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Tapestry, Inc. (“Tapestry” or the “Company”) issued a press release (the “Press Release”) in which the Company announced its financial results for its third fiscal quarter ended March 28, 2026. The Company also posted a slide presentation entitled “Investor Presentation” dated May 7, 2026 on the “Presentations & Financial Reports” investor section of its website ( www.tapestry.com ). A copy of the Press Release is furnished herewi…
Earnings preannouncement—
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-4.2 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.