Reading TMHC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TMHC free→Reading TMHC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TMHC free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate, though the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 36% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while earnings quality is fragile. If TMHC cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $71.90. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $72 TMHC trades at 10× p/e, below its 16× p/e peer median. Our $109 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $69–$85. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 34% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.09x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.14 → $1.14 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 5 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 4 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 55% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 23.9% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$106.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$302.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,380.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is doing financially.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth exceeding 4% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth below 2% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TMHC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 31, 2026, Taylor Morrison Home Corporation, a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), Berkshire Hathaway Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Parent”), and WXYZ Merger Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and a wholly owned subsidiary of Parent (“Merger Sub”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”), pursuant to which, on the terms and subject to the conditions set forth in the Merger Agreement, Merger Sub will merge with a…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$69.00 – $85.00 (median $72.50) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-06-01
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Homebuilding.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TMHC Taylor Morrison | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
DHI D. R. Horton | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | fair | moderate |
PHM PulteGroup | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
LEN Lennar | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 29 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
NVR NVR, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 43 of 100 | fair | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Taylor Morrison plans to repurchase approximately $400 million in shares for the fiscal year 2026.
Focus on maintaining the average closing price of homes around $575,000 for the second quarter of 2026.
Taylor Morrison has entered into a definitive agreement for acquisition by Berkshire Hathaway.
Why it matters: More people are filing for unemployment. This may mean the consumer market is getting weaker. It could hurt home sales.
Confirms:Unemployment claims rise above 300,000 for the week.
Disproves:Unemployment claims stay below 250,000 for the week.
Why it matters: Reaching this buyback target could signal strong cash flow and management confidence.
Confirms:The company finished buying back shares worth $400 million.
Disproves:Share repurchases are much less than $400 million.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a possible shift in the sector's growth phase.
Confirms:Revenue growth reported below the median for the last two quarters.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median for the last two quarters.
Why it matters: Keeping this price shows strong demand and a stable market.
Confirms:The average closing price was $575,000 or more for two months.
Disproves:Average closing price drops below $550,000.
or Exhibit 99.1 to be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall they be deemed to be incorporated by reference into filings under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.