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TKO
TKO Group HoldingsNYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$203.36-4.84%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind, with TKO trading below typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 341% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and sector trends from major players like NFLX and DIS. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Entertainment
- Market cap
- $39.45B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2023-09-15
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $203.36. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$65.95consensus
Range $47.69 – $136.15
vs price: +208% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$254.33consensus
Range $158.36 – $657.40
vs price: -20% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Optionality premiumlow confidence
At $203, TKO's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 74× p/e (4.0× the 19× p/e peer median, and 1.0× even its own history). That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $51 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $225–$250. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
74.5x
peer 18.5x · own history 77.0x
Premium
4.0x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
302%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$50.62
range $41.55 – $117.63
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced in
The market is pricing in roughly 302% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=701).
71st pctl · Communication Services
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 3.15x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=690).
65th pctl · Communication Services
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -15.5% / 30d, n=11for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.67 → $1.41 (-15.5% / 30d). 4 raised, 4 cut, 11 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 77% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: communication services is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$129.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$333.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,829.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- score change · valuation_scoremoderate change
Valuation rose by 16.8 points (from 31.7 to 48.5).
- label change · signal_labelsmall change
Signal changed from 'cautious' to 'mixed'.
Valuation rose. The signal changed from cautious to mixed.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 18d
Watch for Q2 Adjusted EBITDA results to meet or exceed $550M
Why it matters: Hitting the EBITDA target supports the goal of $2.240B to $2.290B for 2026.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 Adjusted EBITDA results came out on August 5, 2026. They meet or exceed $550M.
Disproves:Q2 Adjusted EBITDA results fall below $550M.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TKO yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth cooling below 10% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for TKO and other Communication Services names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like NFLX, DIS, and WBD keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Communication Services sector momentum should keep lifting TKO and other Communication Services names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If TKO raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If TKO cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like NFLX, DIS, and WBD start missing or guiding lower, the Communication Services tailwind helping TKO and other Communication Services names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-061mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the quarterly period ended March 31, 2026. In addition, the Company provided supplemental financial information based on the historical information of the Company for the fiscal years ended December 31, 2023, 2024, and 2025 to retrospectively reflect the acquisition of Professional Bull Riders, On Location, and certain businesses operating under the IMG b…
Earnings preannouncement—
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-7.5 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.