Reading THO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track THO free→Reading THO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track THO free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRecreational VehiclesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. If THO reverses course and raises guidance next quarter, that could signal a sharp positive shift. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $77.17. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $77 THO trades at 16× p/e, below its 16× p/e peer median. Our $78 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $78–$110. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 2% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.28x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.48 → $0.97 (-34.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 11 cut, 13 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 28% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 21.5% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$152.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$414.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,966.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A bigger drop would show worse demand and feelings about the RV market.
Confirms:Net sales for the North American Towable segment decline more than 24.6% year over year.
Disproves:Net sales for the North American Towable segment decline less than 24.6% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for THO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On June 3, 2026, THOR Industries, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing certain financial results for the third quarter ended April 30, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. The Company also posted an updated investor slide presentation and a list of investor questions and answers to the “Investors” section of its website. A copy of the Company’s sli…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$78.00 – $110.00 (median $96.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-06-04
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Leisure Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
THO Thor Industries | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 35 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HAS Hasbro | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GOLF Acushnet Company | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BC Brunswick | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 11 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
MAT Mattel | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Advance the strategic realignment of North American RV operations to improve sales and margin performance.
Continue to invest in product innovation across all brands to maintain competitive advantage.
Maintain a disciplined capital allocation framework to return capital to shareholders while preserving balance sheet strength.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how Thor is doing financially. It will also show its place in the market.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows revenue and profit margins are better than expected.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows revenue and profit margins are lower than expected.
Why it matters: Better consumer confidence could lead to higher retail sales and RV demand.
Confirms:Consumer Confidence Index shows a big rise after the June 10 report.
Disproves:Consumer Confidence Index shows a big drop after the June 10 report.
Why it matters: Clear signs would show that management's plan is solving current problems.
Confirms:Management reports clear gains in net sales or margins from the changes.
Disproves:No gains in net sales or margins despite the changes.
Why it matters: High unemployment claims can show economic problems. This can affect how much people spend.
Confirms:Unemployment claims rise a lot compared to previous weeks.
Disproves:Unemployment claims go down or stay the same. This shows a stronger job market.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a potential shift in the consumer discretionary sector. This could impact Thor Industries' performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median for the sector, indicating a slowdown.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median, suggesting continued strength in the sector.