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AT&TNYSECommunication ServicesTelecom ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$23.58+2.52%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, while earnings quality and management's recent track record are neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect performance compared to peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 32% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This valuation reflects that it trades below peer multiples, and the recent financials and earnings quality are not flashing deterioration. The read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Telecom Services
- Market cap
- $160.92B
- Employees
- 133,030
- IPO date
- 1983-11-21
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-22
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $23.58. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$39.59consensus
Range $21.58 – $40.65
vs price: -40% below
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$38.90consensus
Range $24.57 – $54.33
vs price: -39% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $24 T trades at 11× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $38 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $28–$31. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
10.9x
peer 18.5x · own history 8.6x
Premium
0.6x peer
1.3x its own history
Growth the price needs
-38%
our forecast -1%
Our fair value
$37.92
range $21.33 – $40.32
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 38% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=701).
80th pctl · Communication Services
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.81x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=690).
37th pctl · Communication Services
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutral8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 63% for the rest of the cohort, n=271).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bearish17 analysts, 59% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.59 → $0.59 (-0.1% / 30d). 4 raised, 6 cut, 17 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 1 maintained. 59% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: communication services is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$110.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$237.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,187.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
- DownsideMedium confidenceQuartersactive 7d
Watch for postpaid phone net adds declining below 250,000
Why it matters: Postpaid phone net adds are a key indicator of customer growth. A decline could signal market share loss.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Postpaid phone net adds reported at 250,000 or more.
Disproves:Postpaid phone net adds reported below 250,000.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-139h agoYahoo! Finance
Advances: Grow Advanced Connectivity revenue
Partnership enhances Advanced Connectivity revenue growth potential.
Strongly reinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth cooling below 10% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for T and other Communication Services names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like TMUS, VZ, and CMCSA keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Communication Services sector momentum should keep lifting T and other Communication Services names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If T raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-22), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If T cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-22), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like TMUS, VZ, and CMCSA start missing or guiding lower, the Communication Services tailwind helping T and other Communication Services names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-221mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The registrant announced on April 22, 2026, its results of operations for the first quarter of 2026. The text of the press release and accompanying financial information are attached as exhibits and incorporated herein by reference.
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-5.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.