Reading STWD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track STWD free→Reading STWD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track STWD free→NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. Peer multiples imply a price about 38% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly how bellwethers perform. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $17.00. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $17 STWD trades at 10× p/e, in line with its 9× p/e peer median. Our $12 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Analysts: $19–$20. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 40% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 14%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.37x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.44 → $0.42 (-4.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 4 cut, 8 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 78% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 19.0% above current price.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 142.1% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$66.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$166.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,451.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'expensive' to 'full'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key indicator of financial health. Falling below this level could signal trouble.
Confirms:Reported revenue growth drops below 13% year over year in Q2.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains at or above 13% year over year in Q2.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for STWD yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Indenture and Senior Notes due 2031 On May 26, 2026, Starwood Property Trust, Inc., a Maryland corporation (the “Company”), closed its private offering of $600 million aggregate principal amount of its 6.125% unsecured senior notes due 2031 (the “Notes”), which priced on May 11, 2026. The Notes were issued under an indenture, dated as of May 26, 2026 (the “Indenture”), between the Company and The Bank of New York Mellon, as trustee. The Notes were is…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$19.00 – $20.00 (median $19.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-06-02
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Mortgage REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
STWD Starwood Property Trust | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | full | moderate |
NLY Annaly Capital Management | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 36 of 100 | full | moderate |
AGNC AGNC Investment Corp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | full | moderate |
RITM Rithm Capital | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 54 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
BXMT Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 14 of 100 | fair | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to provide a consistent dividend of $0.48 per share, as maintained for over a decade.
Initiate a share buyback program to enhance shareholder value.
Focus on increasing revenue through strategic investments and operations.
Why it matters: Keeping strong revenue growth is important. It helps the company's finances and how investors feel.
Confirms:Revenue growth reported above 12% year over year in the next quarter.
Disproves:Revenue growth drops below 12% year over year. This shows possible weakness.
Why it matters: The buyback program could help how money is used. It shows management cares about giving value to shareholders.
Confirms:A formal announcement will share details about the share buyback program. This includes timing and execution.
Disproves:There is no announcement or delay about the share buyback program. This is despite earlier hints.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial stability. It also shows commitment to shareholders. If the company cuts it, people may worry.
Confirms:The company announces the dividend remains at $0.48 per share for the next quarter.
Disproves:The company cuts the dividend below $0.48 per share.
Why it matters: The earnings miss could indicate deeper issues. A strong recovery could restore confidence.
Confirms one read:The next earnings report shows results that are better than expected. It recovers from the last miss.
Confirms the other:The next earnings report shows results that miss expectations again. This confirms ongoing problems.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 8, 2026, Starwood Property Trust, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
Other Events. On May 11, 2026, Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that it priced its private offering of $600 million aggregate principal amount of its 6.125% unsecured senior notes due 2031 (the “Notes”). The Notes priced at 100.0% of the principal amount and the settlement of the offering is expected to occur on May 26, 2026, subject to customary closing conditions. A copy of such press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporat…
Other Events. On May 11, 2026, Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that it had commenced a private offering of $600 million aggregate principal amount of its unsecured senior notes due 2031 (the “Notes”). A copy of such press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. The Company intends to allocate an amount equal to the net proceeds from the offering to finance or refinance, in whole or in part, recently co…