Reading STT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track STT free→Reading STT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track STT free→NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is low, but the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 5% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. If STT cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $167.63. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $168 STT trades at 16× p/e, in line with its 15× p/e peer median. Our $164 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $150–$171. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 3% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.86x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.14 → $3.15 (+0.3% / 30d). 7 raised, 2 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 56% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 11.1% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$111.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$245.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,179.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'fair'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop below 10% would signal weakening momentum in State Street's business growth.
Confirms:Total revenue growth falls below 10% year over year in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Total revenue growth remains at or above 10% year over year in Q2 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for STT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 17, 2026, State Street Corporation ("State Street") issued a news release announcing its results of operations for the first-quarter 2026. Copies of that news release and accompanying first-quarter 2026 financial information addendum are furnished herewith as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$150.00 – $171.00 (median $166.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-05-26
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Asset Management & Custody Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
STT State Street Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | fair | low |
BLK BlackRock | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BX Blackstone Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 23 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
BNY BNY Mellon | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | low |
BK BNY Mellon | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on growing total revenue and fee revenue through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Improve operational efficiency through cost management and strategic investments.
Grow assets under management (AUM) through strategic initiatives and market share gains.
Why it matters: Going over this amount shows strong demand for State Street's services. It also shows growth potential.
Confirms:New servicing fee revenue wins exceed $50 million in Q2 2026.
Disproves:New servicing fee revenue wins fall below $50 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: If AUM growth is below 15%, it shows trouble in getting new assets. This can hurt future revenue.
Confirms:AUM growth drops below 15% year over year in Q2 2026.
Disproves:AUM growth stays at or above 15% year over year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Better efficiency can help make more money and support revenue growth.
Confirms:Efficiency numbers improve in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Efficiency numbers get worse in Q2 2026.
Other Events. On April 24, 2026, State Street Corporation (“State Street”) issued $800,000,000 aggregate principal amount of Fixed-to-Floating Rate Senior Notes due 2032 (the “2032 Notes”) and $700,000,000 aggregate principal amount of Fixed-to-Floating Rate Senior Notes due 2037 (the “2037 Notes” and, together with the 2032 Notes, the “Notes”) in a public offering pursuant to a registration statement on Form S-3 (File No. 333-288196) and a related prospectus supplement filed with the Securit…