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SPXC
SPX TechnologiesNYSEIndustrialsBuilding Products & EquipmentSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$230.05-1.47%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but the sector backdrop is a headwind. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 29% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on whether SPXC reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising it, which could damage credibility, and on the performance of sector bellwethers like TT, JCI, and CARR. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Building Products & Equipment
- Market cap
- $11.63B
- Employees
- 4,700
- IPO date
- 1994-03-25
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-30
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $230.05. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$178.87consensus
Range $169.68 – $203.53
vs price: +29% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$293.60consensus
Range $270.50 – $385.45
vs price: -22% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiumlow confidence
At $230 the market pays 33× p/e — above the 24× p/e peer median but in line with its own 27× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $179 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $243–$261. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
32.6x
peer 24.1x · own history 27.3x
Premium
1.4x peer
1.2x its own history
Growth the price needs
29%
our forecast 18%
Our fair value
$178.87
range $164.27 – $197.36
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced inStretched
The market is pricing in roughly 29% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 18%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
76th pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.48x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
53rd pctl · Industrials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearish12 analysts, 92% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.89 → $1.85 (-2.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 11 cut, 12 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 92% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$194.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$345.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,315.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 14d
Watch for Q2 revenue growth to exceed 15% year over year
Why it matters: If growth goes up, it shows strong demand and good operations.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 15% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth falls below 10% year over year.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SPXC yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like TT, JCI, and CARR keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting SPXC and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for SPXC and other Industrials names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If SPXC reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-04-30), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like TT, JCI, and CARR start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping SPXC and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits SPXC and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-301mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, the Company issued the press release furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Report, and in Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information in
Earnings preannouncement—
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.