Reading SPWR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SPWR free→
SPWR
SunPower, Inc.NASDAQInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· this week
$0.81-6.35%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Risk is elevated, and compared with sector peers, it is below typical for the sector. The sector backdrop is a tailwind, which may help the company despite its challenges. The valuation label has changed from 'inexpensive' to 'None', indicating a lack of clear valuation guidance. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Solar
- Market cap
- $125.55M
- Employees
- 785
- IPO date
- 2021-02-10
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $0.81. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$7.24consensus
Range $7.24 – $7.24
vs price: -89% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-year—
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-year—
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $0.81 SPWR trades at 0× p/s, below its 4× p/s peer median. Our $7.46 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
0.4x
peer 3.7x · own history —
Premium
0.1x peer
Growth the price needs
-89%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$7.46
range $7.46 – $7.46
WhyEarnings too small for P/EPeer anchor overstates the discount
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensive12-month view
What's priced in
The price sits about 89% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
2nd pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted 0.85x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Management & capital allocation
Not enough signal yet.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -158.3% / 30d, n=2for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.06 → $-0.15 (-158.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · Weeklytailwind+21.6%sector vs S&P 500, 60d
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weakProvisional
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
Not enough price history for this read.
How much price usually moves either way.
Not enough price history for this read.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,750.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
Valuation changed. The valuation label moved from "inexpensive" to "None." Risk is elevated. Earnings quality is loss-making. Recent financial performance is weak. The sector backdrop is a tailwind.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SPWR yet.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for SPWR and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like FSLR, ENPH, and SEDG keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting SPWR and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If SPWR raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-12), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If SPWR cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-12), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like FSLR, ENPH, and SEDG start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping SPWR and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
No material events in the last 90 days.
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.2 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.