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SNDR
Schneider NationalNYSEIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$38.44+0.87%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect performance compared to sector peers, where SNDR is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 65% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. This analysis is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Trucking
- Market cap
- $6.61B
- Employees
- 19,000
- IPO date
- 2016-12-22
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-30
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $38.44. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$23.28consensus
Range $15.60 – $55.22
vs price: +65% above
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$89.98consensus
Range $79.80 – $105.17
vs price: -57% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratinglow confidence
At $38 SNDR trades at 65× p/e — 2.8× the 23× p/e peer median, and above its own 27× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $23 fair value is low-confidence here. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
65.2x
peer 23.5x · own history 27.4x
Premium
2.8x peer
2.4x its own history
Growth the price needs
68%
our forecast -1%
Our fair value
$22.89
range $15.60 – $55.12
WhyPeer anchor understates a real premiumValuation methods disagree
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 68% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
51st pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 6.52x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
94th pctl · Industrials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
stableEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish15 analysts, 38% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.23 → $0.23 (+0.5% / 30d). 12 raised, 4 cut, 15 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 38% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 2.4% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$110.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$329.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,448.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceWeeksactive 14d
Watch for the quarterly cash dividend payment on July 10, 2026
Why it matters: The dividend payment shows the company cares about giving cash to shareholders. It shows they are financially healthy.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:The company pays the $0.10 dividend as planned on July 10, 2026.
Disproves:The company stops or lowers the dividend payment.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SNDR yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like ODFL, XPO, and KNX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting SNDR and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If SNDR raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If SNDR cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like ODFL, XPO, and KNX start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping SNDR and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits SNDR and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-301mo agoItem 2.02
and in Exhibit 99.1 is being furnished and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of Section 18, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. Special Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements This information contained in this Item co…
Earnings preannouncement—
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-1.7 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.