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SandiskNASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$1980.10+5.24%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is elevated, but the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 204% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. The valuation is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Computer Hardware
- Market cap
- $278.63B
- Employees
- 11,000
- IPO date
- 2025-03-07
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-24
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1980.10. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$616.21consensus
Range $449.63 – $763.80
vs price: +221% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-year—
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-year—
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiumlow confidence
At $1,980 the market pays 64× p/e — above the 22× p/e peer median but in line with its own 54× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $650 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $975–$2,900. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
63.6x
peer 22.3x · own history 54.5x
Premium
2.9x peer
1.2x its own history
Growth the price needs
205%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$650.16
range $548.64 – $763.80
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced in
The market is pricing in roughly 205% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
68th pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.76x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
55th pctl · Information Technology
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish6 PT revisions / 30d, avg 43.5% above currentfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $33.05 → $33.72 (+2.0% / 30d). 12 raised, 0 cut, 16 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 7 maintained. 78% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
6 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 43.5% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: information technology is in growth, with decelerating (~1.0 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strongProvisional
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- strong
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 200.0% avg surprise
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$455.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$715.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,134.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- score change · valuation_scoresmall change
Valuation rose by 14.2 points (from 23.1 to 37.3).
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 18d
Watch for Q4 EPS guidance between $30.00 and $33.00
Why it matters: This guidance shows profit expectations. Meeting this range can mean good cost control and strong sales.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q4 EPS reported within or above the guidance range of $30.00 to $33.00.
Disproves:Q4 EPS reported below $30.00.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SNDK yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in Information Technology to fall below the median.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for SNDK and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like DELL, ANET, and STX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting SNDK and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If SNDK raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If SNDK cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like DELL, ANET, and STX start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping SNDK and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-301mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026 , Sandisk Corporation (the “Company”) announced financial results for the fiscal third quarter ended April 3, 2026. A copy of the press release making this announcement is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Secu…
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-11 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.