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Snap-onNYSEIndustrialsTools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$387.48+0.73%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Risk is low, while the sector backdrop presents a headwind, indicating challenges in the broader market. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact SNA's performance. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Tools & Accessories
- Market cap
- $19.69B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1994-03-18
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-16
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $387.48. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$443.14consensus
Range $337.56 – $466.80
vs price: -13% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$528.71consensus
Range $372.59 – $567.93
vs price: -27% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $387 SNA trades at 20× p/e, below its 24× p/e peer median. Our $443 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $380–$431. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
20.3x
peer 24.1x · own history 15.8x
Premium
0.8x peer
1.3x its own history
Growth the price needs
-13%
our forecast 4%
Our fair value
$443.14
range $344.81 – $466.80
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 13% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
72nd pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.13x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
27th pctl · Industrials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral8 analysts, 45% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $4.95 → $4.95 (+0.1% / 30d). 2 raised, 4 cut, 8 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 45% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 12.9% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- weak
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$100.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$190.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $857.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
lowas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceQuartersactive 18d
Watch for effective tax rate between 22% and 23% for 2026
Why it matters: Staying within this range shows good tax management. It affects net income and cash flow.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:The effective tax rate reported in Q2 is between 22% and 23%.
Disproves:The effective tax rate reported in Q2 is above 24%.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SNA yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like RBC, LECO, and SWK keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting SNA and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If SNA raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-23), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If SNA cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-23), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like RBC, LECO, and SWK start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping SNA and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits SNA and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-231mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 23, 2026, Snap-on Incorporated (the “Corporation”) issued a press release announcing results for its first quarter ended April 4, 2026. The text of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The press release contains cautionary statements identifying important factors that could cause actual results of the Corporation to differ materially from those described in any forward-looking statement…
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.8 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.