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SMTC
Semtech CorporationNASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· this month
$166.71+1.92%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 121% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. The valuation is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- Market cap
- $14.37B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1995-06-14
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $166.71. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$75.42consensus
Range $55.99 – $97.33
vs price: +121% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$344.48consensus
Range $344.48 – $344.48
vs price: -52% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratinglow confidence
At $167 SMTC trades at 15× p/s — 1.3× the 12× p/s peer median, and above its own 5× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $75 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $100–$225. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
14.8x
peer 11.5x · own history 5.1x
Premium
1.3x peer
2.9x its own history
Growth the price needs
121%
our forecast 11%
Our fair value
$75.42
range $55.99 – $98.33
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 121% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
45th pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -5.72x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
stable1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +20.2% / 30d, n=13for period ending 2026-07-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.51 → $0.61 (+20.2% / 30d). 12 raised, 0 cut, 13 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
15 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 20.2% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: information technology is in (~1.0 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$321.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$612.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,668.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 7d
Watch for Q2 revenue growth to meet or exceed $328 million
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this revenue target would show strong demand and growth in data center sales.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 revenue reported at $328 million or higher.
Disproves:Q2 revenue reported below $323 million.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SMTC yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in Information Technology to fall below the median.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for SMTC and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like NVDA, TSM, and AVGO keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting SMTC and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If SMTC raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-26), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If SMTC cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-26), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like NVDA, TSM, and AVGO start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping SMTC and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-085d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Amendment to the Executive Severance Plan Semtech Corporation (“Semtech” or the “Company”) maintains the Semtech Corporation Executive Severance Plan, formerly the Semtech Corporation Executive Change in Control Retention Plan (the “Executive Severance Plan”). On June 2, 2026, the Human Capital and Compensation Committee of the Company’s Board of Di…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.