Reading SMP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SMP free→Reading SMP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SMP free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 28% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The valuation is based on the fact that it trades below peer multiples, and the recent financials and earnings quality are not flashing deterioration. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $39.40. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $39 SMP trades at 10× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $53 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 26% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.62x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.45 → $1.39 (-3.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$116.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$272.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,256.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'inexpensive'.
Valuation changed. It rose from "fair" to "inexpensive." Risk fell. The sector backdrop remained a headwind.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Sales growth below 5% would signal weakening demand in a key segment for SMP.
Confirms:Q2 sales growth reported below 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 sales growth reported above 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SMP yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026 , Standard Motor Products, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of such press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. Such press release shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incor…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Parts & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SMP Standard Motor Products, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
BWA BorgWarner | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | full | moderate |
MOD Modine Manufacturing Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
APTV Aptiv | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AUR Aurora Innovation Inc | — | — | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on achieving low to mid-single digit sales growth for 2026.
Aim to sustain adjusted EBITDA margin within the 11%-12% range for 2026.
Target reducing net debt levels to 2.0x adjusted EBITDA by the end of 2026.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Focus on improving gross profit margins through strategic initiatives.
Why it matters: Gross profit growth reflects product mix and pricing. A slowdown below 10% signals potential issues.
Confirms:Gross profit growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Gross profit growth reported at or above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Operating income growth shows if cost management is working. A drop below 50% growth raises concerns.
Confirms:Operating income growth was below 50% compared to last year.
Disproves:Operating income growth reported at or above 50% year over year.
Why it matters: A big rise in inventory may mean overproduction or low demand.
Confirms:Inventory levels rise by more than 10% from last quarter.
Disproves:Inventory levels go down or stay the same from last quarter.