Reading SMG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SMG free→
SMG
Scotts Miracle-Gro CompanyNYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· this month
$61.67-0.34%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Earnings quality is robust, indicating that cash flow supports reported profits. Peer multiples imply a price about 28% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The outlook hinges on guidance changes, as a cut could negatively impact estimates, while a raise could boost momentum. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Materials
- Industry
- Agricultural Inputs
- Market cap
- $3.57B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1994-02-15
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-29
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $61.67. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$85.52consensus
Range $72.28 – $91.43
vs price: -28% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$93.03consensus
Range $69.18 – $102.34
vs price: -34% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $62 SMG trades at 14× p/e, below its 20× p/e peer median. Our $86 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $63–$79. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
14.0x
peer 20.1x · own history 16.8x
Premium
0.7x peer
0.8x its own history
Growth the price needs
-28%
our forecast -0%
Our fair value
$85.52
range $72.28 – $91.43
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 28% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 0%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
48th pctl · Materials
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 4.31x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=988).
88th pctl · Materials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral7 analysts, 63% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $2.53 → $2.48 (-2.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 7 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 63% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 18.7% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: materials is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.8 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$126.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$361.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,389.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 14d
Watch for dividend payout to remain at $0.66
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company cares about giving value to shareholders. It also shows financial health.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Dividend payout stays at $0.66 per share for the next quarter.
Disproves:Dividend payout is cut below $0.66 per share.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SMG yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth turning positive in Materials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like CTVA, CF, and MOS keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Materials sector momentum should keep lifting SMG and other Materials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If SMG raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If SMG cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like CTVA, CF, and MOS start missing or guiding lower, the Materials tailwind helping SMG and other Materials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits SMG and other Materials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-291mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Scotts Miracle-Gro (the “Company”) issued a news release reporting information regarding its financial results for the three months ended March 28, 2026. Also, on April 29, 2026, the Company released, on its website, information regarding its financial results for the three and six months ended March 28, 2026 and its financial condition as of March 28, 2026. A copy of the news release and the financial results are furnished her…
Earnings preannouncement—
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-3.4 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.