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SupermicroNASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$30.46-4.72%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive changes. Risk is high, but the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 58% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern suggests potential issues due to weak financials or fragile earnings quality. The read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Computer Hardware
- Market cap
- $24.44B
- Employees
- 6,238
- IPO date
- 2006-11-02
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $30.46. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$68.79consensus
Range $51.86 – $186.73
vs price: -56% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$170.53consensus
Range $150.05 – $191.00
vs price: -82% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $30 SMCI trades at 13× p/e, below its 22× p/e peer median. Our $69 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $30–$45. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
13.3x
peer 22.3x · own history 96.6x
Premium
0.6x peer
0.1x its own history
Growth the price needs
-56%
our forecast 59%
Our fair value
$68.79
range $51.86 – $186.73
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 56% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 59%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
96th pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted -5.37x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 65% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
1st pctl · Information Technology
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish17 analysts, 26% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.71 → $0.71 (-0.1% / 30d). 14 raised, 0 cut, 17 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 26% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -4.5% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
Met or beat guidance 67% of the last 3 guided quarters · 12.8% avg surprise
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$317.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$728.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,618.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- score change · company_momentum_scoremoderate change
Company momentum fell by 25.3 points (from 50.7 to 25.4).
- score change · valuation_scoremoderate change
Valuation fell by 19.0 points (from 70.0 to 51.0).
- score change · composite_insight_scoresmall change
Composite insight fell by 10.2 points (from 23.0 to 12.8).
- label change · confidence_labelsmall change
Confidence changed from 'medium' to 'high'.
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceWeeksactive 7d
Watch for Q4 revenue guidance between $11.0 billion and $12.5 billion
Why it matters: This guidance will show if Supermicro can maintain its growth momentum. It is key for investor confidence.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q4 revenue guidance is at least $11.0 billion.
Disproves:Q4 revenue guidance falls below $11.0 billion.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SMCI yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in Information Technology to fall below the median.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for SMCI and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like DELL, SNDK, and ANET keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting SMCI and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If SMCI raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If SMCI cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like DELL, SNDK, and ANET start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping SMCI and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-121d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Distribution Agreement On June 11, 2026, Super Micro Computer, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”) entered into a distribution agreement (the “Distribution Agreement”) with J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC and Citigroup Global Markets Inc., as agents (each, an “Agent” and collectively, the “Agents”), to sell shares of common stock, par value $0.001 per share, of the Company (the “Common Stock”) having aggregate sales proce…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-7.1 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.